10 Red Quill Cir · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$63,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 444 Days on market

Built 1977 3,781 sqft lot $226/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This furnished home is located in the 55+ pet friendly community of Saddlebag Lake Resort, where you own the land. NEW HVAC INSTALLED 5/9/2025 with 10 year transferrable warranty! On the main floor you'll find a spacious living room and a room at the back for your overnight guests, while upstairs is the kitchen and dining room combo and the owners suite with pass-through bathroom. The Florida room at the back is large enough to store the golf cart, which comes with the home. Situated on a nicely landscaped corner lot, there is also a two-car driveway for off road parking and a shed which houses the washer and dryer, with space for all your tools. Come for the winter, or live here year round

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community pool
• Florida room

Tags

• LANDSCAPED CORNER LOT
• TWO CAR DRIVEWAY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SCREEN ENCLOSED HOT TUB
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Third-party listing; Contact listing agent for access/directions
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees about $226.67; total annual fees about $2,720; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA approximately $226.67 (quarterly fee $680); HOA covers water, sewer and trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub, sauna, recreation facilities; Dog park; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association approval not required

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Two levels; Faces west; Residential property in a planned unit development; Water access to Saddlebag Lake (lagoon/lake access)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Estimated building area ~812 sq ft
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Awning(s); Shed(s); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $42k (34.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $439 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 444 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,810 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 444 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.50%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-17,686
• Equity at exit: $9,468

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-23,751
• Equity at exit: $5,490

Cash invested: $17,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$333
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$226
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $41,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-105	+0% $-123	+5% $-141	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-172	+0% $-123	+5% $-74	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-107	base $-123	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,875
• Closing costs: $1,905
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $226 · $2,712/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $63,500 Active 444 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,500 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,500 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,500 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,500 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,500 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $63,500 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,500 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,500 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,500 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $63,500 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $63,500 Active 425 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,500 Active 424 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,500 Active 423 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $63,500
16. 2025-10-07
    price $65,000
17. 2025-10-04
    status Active
18. 2025-09-30
    historical
19. 2025-03-30
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥108°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,557
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$5,436
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − HOA: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$1,847
• Taxable loss: −$2,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$514
• After-tax cash flow: $-959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $63,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-30 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.