27 Cimmarron Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$128,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 6,098 sqft lot $203/sqft · 83% above area $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great lot in River Ridge Golf and Camping Club. Bring your RV or set a mobile home on this cleared lot with 200 amp service already in place. Water, electric and septic already hooked up for you to start enjoy all that River Ridge has to offer. Access to the Lake Gaston at the community boat ramp, day slips for your boat, 2 swimming pools, tennis courts and much, much more. Don't forget the 9 hole golf course! Lots this nice don't come along very often. Call your favorite Realtor today and start enjoying this unique community soon. Please note that the enclosed trailer and boat trailer are not included in the purchase price.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $67.50; Located in the River Ridge Golf & Camping Club community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport on property; Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property (vacation sub-type); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; No patio or porch; No fencing; Lake Gaston NW Quad view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Cooling system (type: other)
• Interior features: Storm windows; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $128k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.44%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,901
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: 83.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Happy Trl	0.44mi	1/1.0	638 (+1%)	1mo	$27,500	$43	76
289 Deer Dr	0.16mi	1/1.0	563 (-11%)	11mo	$145,000	$258	66
30 Haw Haw Trl	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	676 (+7%)	10mo	$69,000	$102	60
7 Iowa Trl	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	552 (-12%)	6mo	$50,000	$91	60
76 Lumber Trl	0.69mi	1/1.0	600 (-5%)	13mo	$55,000	$92	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $18,875
• Equity at exit: $46,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $61,896
• Equity at exit: $64,068

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $260	+0% $215	+5% $171	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $154	+0% $215	+5% $277	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $248	base $215	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectricpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $135,000 Active 1076-char remark
18. 2025-07-11
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Great lot in River Ridge Golf and Camping Club. Bring your RV or set a mobile home on this cleared lot with 200 amp service already in place. Water, electric and septic already hooked up for you to start enjoy all that River Ridge has to offer. Access to the Lake Gaston at the community boat ramp, day slips for your boat, 2 swimming pools, tennis courts and much, much more. Don't forget the 9 hole golf course! Lots this nice don't come along very often. Call your favorite Realtor today and start enjoying this unique community soon. Please note that the enclosed trailer and boat trailer are not included in the purchase price.

19. 2025-07-11
    soldstatus $38,000

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Great lot in River Ridge Golf and Camping Club. Bring your RV or set a mobile home on this cleared lot with 200 amp service already in place. Water, electric and septic already hooked up for you to start enjoy all that River Ridge has to offer. Access to the Lake Gaston at the community boat ramp, day slips for your boat, 2 swimming pools, tennis courts and much, much more. Don't forget the 9 hole golf course! Lots this nice don't come along very often. Call your favorite Realtor today and start enjoying this unique community soon. Please note that the enclosed trailer and boat trailer are not included in the purchase price.

20. 2025-06-11
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Great lot in River Ridge Golf and Camping Club. Bring your RV or set a mobile home on this cleared lot with 200 amp service already in place. Water, electric and septic already hooked up for you to start enjoy all that River Ridge has to offer. Access to the Lake Gaston at the community boat ramp, day slips for your boat, 2 swimming pools, tennis courts and much, much more. Don't forget the 9 hole golf course! Lots this nice don't come along very often. Call your favorite Realtor today and start enjoying this unique community soon. Please note that the enclosed trailer and boat trailer are not included in the purchase price.

21. 2025-05-16
    listed $40,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Great lot in River Ridge Golf and Camping Club. Bring your RV or set a mobile home on this cleared lot with 200 amp service already in place. Water, electric and septic already hooked up for you to start enjoy all that River Ridge has to offer. Access to the Lake Gaston at the community boat ramp, day slips for your boat, 2 swimming pools, tennis courts and much, much more. Don't forget the 9 hole golf course! Lots this nice don't come along very often. Call your favorite Realtor today and start enjoying this unique community soon. Please note that the enclosed trailer and boat trailer are not included in the purchase price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+220.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $128,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-05 Listed $135,000 RVLG
• 2025-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-11 Sold (MLS) $38,000 RVLG
• 2025-06-11 Pending — RVLG
• 2025-05-16 Listed $40,000 RVLG

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $29 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.