2011 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$72,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 709 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1951 6,625 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in the heart of Lubbock, TX! This centrally located 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is just minutes from Texas Tech University (approx. 7 minutes), making it an ideal rental property. Professionally managed by Location Rentals, this property is truly turnkey with consistent rental performance. Currently leased at $895/month, offering a projected annual income of $10,740. This property is part of a package deal, MLS# 202605274 including 5430 Ave B, both offered together for a total price of $149,000—providing added value and strong investment potential.

Key facts

• 6,625 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($745 rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,713 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-5,476
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,315
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$156
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $632

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2018 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$849	$1.70	21d	1	0.37mi
2118 33rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	676	$550	$0.81	21d	1	0.39mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	13d	1	0.46mi
2308 33rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	696	$850	$1.22	43d	1	0.49mi
1718 46th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$695	$1.06	43d	1	0.49mi
1707 32nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	400	$575	$1.44	43d	1	0.49mi
1610 45th St Unit 14 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$895	$1.63	43d	1	0.55mi
1604 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	43d	1	0.57mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,010	$1.00	13d	23	0.59mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	13d	3	0.61mi
2320 30th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	480	$625	$1.30	13d	1	0.68mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	21d	1	0.73mi
1925 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	392	$550	$1.40	13d	1	0.76mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$750	$1.08	43d	1	0.76mi
1608 29th St Unit C Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$650	$0.96	43d	1	0.77mi
1608 29th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$595	$1.18	13d	1	0.77mi
1608 29th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	694	$750	$1.08	13d	1	0.77mi
2305 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	516	$625	$1.21	21d	1	0.79mi
2422 29th St Unit REAR Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	480	$600	$1.25	21d	1	0.81mi
1917 26th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$725	$1.32	21d	1	0.83mi
1917 26th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$735	$1.34	43d	1	0.83mi
2604 S 2604 Ave S A Unit 2604 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	572	$625	$1.09	43d	1	0.83mi
1102 42nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	574	$495	$0.86	21d	1	0.84mi
1119 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	704	$595	$0.85	21d	1	0.85mi
2510 Avenue T Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$935	$1.87	43d	1	0.86mi
1107 45th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	43d	1	0.87mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$888	$1.35	13d	25	0.89mi
2205 25th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	440	$650	$1.48	21d	1	0.90mi
2323 25th St Unit Rear Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	475	$650	$1.37	43d	1	0.95mi
1511 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	648	$800	$1.23	43d	1	0.98mi
1909 23rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$600	$1.20	43d	1	1.01mi
4613 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	734	$750	$1.02	43d	1	1.03mi
3007 39th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	21d	1	1.08mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	43d	1	1.10mi
3005 35th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	532	$525	$0.99	43d	1	1.10mi
1310 54th St Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$575	$0.84	43d	1	1.14mi
1911 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$750	$1.05	43d	1	1.16mi
4511 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	528	$750	$1.42	13d	1	1.16mi
1101 52nd St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$850	$1.18	21d	1	1.18mi
2010 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$599	$0.96	13d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $825
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $72,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Investor opportunity in the heart of Lubbock, TX! This centrally located 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is just minutes from Texas Tech University (approx. 7 minutes), making it an ideal rental property. Professionally managed by Location Rentals, this property is truly turnkey with consistent rental performance. Currently leased at $895/month, offering a projected annual income of $10,740. This property is part of a package deal, MLS# 202605274 including 5430 Ave B, both offered together for a total price of $149,000—providing added value and strong investment potential.

19. 2026-04-09
    listed $895
20. 2022-08-02
    price $800
21. 2020-07-30
    soldstatus 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Investment opportunity! This great 2 bed 1 bath home is ready for a new owner. It is currently leased for $795! Great location, and easy rent. Hardwood flooring throughout, and newer heating and air, water heater, insulation and roof. Call for more information!

22. 2020-06-29
    listed $60,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Investment opportunity! This great 2 bed 1 bath home is ready for a new owner. It is currently leased for $795! Great location, and easy rent. Hardwood flooring throughout, and newer heating and air, water heater, insulation and roof. Call for more information!

23. 2019-06-24
    listed $54,300
24. 2017-05-18
    soldstatus
25. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus
26. 2016-04-20
    listed $49,000
27. 2009-07-16
    soldstatus
28. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus
29. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$25/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$715
• − Management: −$715
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable loss: −$101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24
• After-tax cash flow: $1,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $825 LARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $72,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed for Rent $895 LARMLS
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $800 RENT.
• 2020-07-30 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-06-29 Listed $60,000 LARMLS
• 2019-06-24 Listed $54,300 LARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-04-20 Listed $49,000 LARMLS
• 2009-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.