301 Elbow Rd · Mattydale, NY 13212

$174,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1948 8,850 sqft lot Est $225k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cape in the North Syracuse SD. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers a versatile layout featuring a large living/dining space, an open kitchen, and a main first-floor bedroom with a full bathroom, double sink vanity and a walk-in closet.  The two second floor bedrooms have plenty of closet space & storage. The kitchen includes a gas stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher, and offers ample cabinet space.   The main living room offers a gas fireplace, side entrance with a landing and closet to hold all your coats and shoes. The wall AC unit is only 3 years young.   Off the dining area is enclosed Florida room with electrical and access to the private back yard. &n

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• Open kitchen
• Double sink vanity

Tags

• CAPE IN THE NORTH SYRACUSE SD
• LARGE LIVING DINING SPACE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• MAIN FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding and vinyl siding; Cedar accents; Block foundation; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Built as existing (already built)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Partial fencing; Private yard; Hot tub/spa; Play structure; Shed(s)/storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen/family room combo; Living/dining room; Pantry; Sliding glass door(s); Storage; Solid surface counters; Window treatments; Bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary; Workshop; Drapes; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.4% in Mattydale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#360 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $175k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Circle Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,284 (-3%)	4mo	$183,000	$143	83
305 Hyland Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+2%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	77
216 Crestwood Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+1%)	6mo	$110,000	$82	77
108 Dolores Ter S	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,352 (+2%)	4mo	$252,500	$187	71
202 Hyland Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,424 (+7%)	6mo	$196,000	$138	67
215 Orchard Dr W	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+6%)	6mo	$255,000	$181	60
203 Crestwood Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+10%)	1mo	$278,500	$191	59
201 Orchard Dr W	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,185 (-11%)	3mo	$240,405	$203	56
114 Lynn Dr	0.37mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-13%)	1mo	$246,000	$214	53
230 Crestwood Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (+15%)	7mo	$255,000	$168	45
101 Castle Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,494 (+13%)	4mo	$240,000	$161	41
104 Sand Rd	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-14%)	8mo	$195,000	$170	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,098
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $30,188
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,642/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hyland Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,400	$1.90	14d	1	0.28mi
2802 Lemoyne Ave Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	1.26mi
106 Harrington St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,875	$1.61	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $174,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,900 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $174,900 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $174,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-27
   listed $174,900 Active
10. 2014-08-07
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$4,642
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $2,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $4,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattydale

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #6130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,155
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+186.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2014-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,642 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.