3649 E Shaeffer Ave · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Land public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1966 5,600 sqft lot $135/sqft · 7% above area Est $61k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bed, 1 Bath – Work in Progress | Build to Your Vision Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home currently under construction. This property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and finish a home to their own taste and style. With the major framework already in place, you have the flexibility to select finishes, layouts, and design elements that truly make it your own. Situated on a spacious lot, this project offers strong potential as a primary residence, investment property, or weekend retreat. Whether you’re a contractor, investor, or homeowner with a vision, this is your chance to bring a project across the finish line exactly the way you want. Please note: The home is a work in progress and will require approval and compliance with Mohave County regulations. Buyer is responsible for verifying all requirements, permits, and inspections needed to complete the build.

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.75%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,000
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 6.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $20,002
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $48,847
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $145/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $70,000 Active 910-char remark

    Show marketing remark (910 chars)

    2 Bed, 1 Bath – Work in Progress | Build to Your Vision Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home currently under construction. This property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and finish a home to their own taste and style. With the major framework already in place, you have the flexibility to select finishes, layouts, and design elements that truly make it your own. Situated on a spacious lot, this project offers strong potential as a primary residence, investment property, or weekend retreat. Whether you’re a contractor, investor, or homeowner with a vision, this is your chance to bring a project across the finish line exactly the way you want. Please note: The home is a work in progress and will require approval and compliance with Mohave County regulations. Buyer is responsible for verifying all requirements, permits, and inspections needed to complete the build.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $145 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 195.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥100°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$145
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $4,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $70,000 WARDEX

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $145 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.