1159 E Farm to Market 3288 · New Summerfield, TX 75766

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1970 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful . 42-acre waterfront lot on Lake Striker with breathtaking views, a private dock, and an abundance of mature shade trees creating the perfect peaceful lake setting. The property features a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with over 1,800 sq ft, a covered carport, and a screened-in back porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the scenery year-round. The lot offers a gentle slope down to the water with plenty of space to entertain, build, or create your ideal weekend getaway or full-time lake home. The home is being given no value, making this an incredible opportunity to own prime waterfront property and make it your own!

Key facts

• Private dock
• Waterfront lot
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT
• PRIVATE DOCK
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• GENTLE SLOPE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near FM 3288 in Jacksonville, TX (directions available from Henderson)

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property in LAKE STRIKER subdivision
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.43 acres; Lot dimensions roughly 151 x 435 x 214 x 478

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Window cooling units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,210 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Summerfield ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.74%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $8,746
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $36,910
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,959/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $85,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,959
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$758
• After-tax cash flow: $3,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Summerfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832610
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,804
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6300
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Summerfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1210
• US rank: #21123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 391
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $85,000 LAAR
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,959 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.