6416 Covington Villas Dr · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $192k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath duplex garden home located so close to I-20/59. Fresh interior paint and large spacious kitchen with beautiful full size cabinets. Cozy fireplace in the Family Room. Storage room on back of house. It feels like waling into a new house! Seller's will give a $2,000 flooring allowance with a full price offer.

Key facts

• Near area schools
• Move-in ready
• Near dining

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-20/59
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR AREA SCHOOLS
• MOVE-IN READY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Forrest Elementary School (math 13% / reading 32%, grade F, #435 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 561 students, 60% FRL); Eastwood Middle School (math 3% / reading 31%, grade F, #201 of 257 statewide, top 79%, 758 students, 78% FRL); Paul W Bryant High School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,042 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa City average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,756/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1963% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $180k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.71%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,700
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6535 Covington Villas Drive Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,278 (0%)	3mo	$159,900	$125	93
6717 Covington Villas Lane Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,278 (0%)	2mo	$197,500	$155	90
6415 Covington Villas Dr Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (-4%)	8mo	$183,850	$149	81
6228 Covington Villas Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-12%)	3mo	$169,000	$150	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $46,400
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $158,343
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 56%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,756
Total (2 units)			$2,756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6717 Covington Villas Ln Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	13d	1	0.15mi
6330 Cashmere Pl Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,600	$1.11	13d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 2026-03-09
   price $186,900
4. 2025-10-31
   listed $195,900 Active
5. 2018-03-07
   soldstatus $110,300
6. 2018-03-06
   soldstatus $110,300 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Come see this well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath duplex garden home located so close to I-20/59. Fresh interior paint and large spacious kitchen with beautiful full size cabinets. Cozy fireplace in the Family Room. Storage room on back of house. It feels like waling into a new house! Seller's will give a $2,000 flooring allowance with a full price offer.

7. 2017-12-07
   listed $115,900 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Come see this well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath duplex garden home located so close to I-20/59. Fresh interior paint and large spacious kitchen with beautiful full size cabinets. Cozy fireplace in the Family Room. Storage room on back of house. It feels like waling into a new house! Seller's will give a $2,000 flooring allowance with a full price offer.

8. 2011-03-17
   soldstatus $108,470

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $10,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,547
• After-tax cash flow: $10,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa City
• NCES district ID: 0103360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,474
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7647
• State rank: #74 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscaloosa, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+65.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $179,900 WAMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $186,900 WAMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $195,900 WAMLS
• 2018-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $110,300 Public Records
• 2018-03-06 Sold (MLS) $110,300 WAMLS
• 2017-12-07 Listed $115,900 WAMLS
• 2011-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $108,470 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $658 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.