2806 Wilson Ln · Crestview, FL 32539

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1995 7,405 sqft lot Est $326k · 30% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION IN SOUTH CRESTVIEW ONLY MINUTES TO DUKE FIELD AND EGLIN AFB. THIS SECLUDED SUBDIVISION OFFERS A 30 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE SHOPPING AND DINING ALONG THE EMERALD COAST. INSIDE, THERE ARE TILED FLOORS IN THE FOYER, BOTH BATHROOMS,THE BREAKFAST NOOK AND THE KITCHEN. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A TILED BREAKFAST BAR AND A BREAKFAST NOOK WITH A BAY WINDOW OVERLOOKING THE BACK YARD.THE LIVING ROOM HAS A VAULTED CEILING WITH PLANT SHELVES AND A TILE SURROUNDED CORNER GAS FIREPLACE.THERE IS A FORMAL DINING ROOM AT THE ENTRY WITH FRENCH DOORS. TILED FLOORS ARE IN BOTH BATHROOMS,THE FOYER,KITCHEN AND BREAKFAST BAR. THE 4TH BEDROOM COULD ALSO SERVE AS A FORMAL DINING ROOM BY THE FOYER WITH FRENCH DOORS.THE SELLER IS OFFERING A ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY TO THE BUYERS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING. THIS HOME IS IN NEED OF MINOR TOUCH-UPS BUT IS A GREAT HOME, IN A GREAT LOCATION, AT A GREAT PRICE. TAKE A LOOK TODAY AT ALL THE EXTRAS FOR THE MONEY!

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Fenced yard
• Tile in wet rooms

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• FENCED YARD
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LVP FLOORING
• TILE IN WET ROOMS
• ROOF 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: PINNACLE POINT

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Electric service; Natural gas; Septic tank; Gas water heater
• Home design: Traditional style; Single-story; Built in 1995; County residential single-family zoning; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Brick and vinyl trim exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Columns; Porch; Privacy fencing; Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Fireplace; Kitchen island; Pantry; Washer/Dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Antioch Elementary School (math 64% / reading 69%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,016 students, 45% FRL); Crestview High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,315 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $230k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,448 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2806 Wilson Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$131	94
4700 Marine Loop	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-0%)	1mo	$336,900	$207	66
4690 Marine Loop	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-0%)	2mo	$329,900	$202	65
4686 Marine Loop	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-0%)	3mo	$334,900	$205	64
4684 Marine Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	2mo	$369,900	$199	39
4694 Marine Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	2mo	$369,900	$199	38
4698 Marine Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	2mo	$367,000	$198	38
4688 Marine Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	3mo	$369,900	$199	38
4676 Marine Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	3mo	$369,900	$199	38
4600 Soldier Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	2mo	$369,900	$199	37
4404 Marine Loop	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	3mo	$358,815	$193	37
4602 Soldier Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+13%)	3mo	$364,900	$197	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,722
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,036
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32539

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $230	+0% $165	+5% $100	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $82	+0% $165	+5% $248	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $223	base $165	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Wilson Ln Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,895	$1.17	15d	1	0.04mi
2800 Wilson Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,895	$1.17	46d	1	0.04mi
2784 Keats Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,195	$1.13	23d	1	0.28mi
4596 Hermosa Rd Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,400	$1.29	46d	1	0.39mi
4546 Live Oak Church Rd Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1945	$2,250	$1.16	23d	1	0.41mi
2836 Patriot Ridge Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,375	$1.30	46d	1	0.63mi
2837 Atoka Trl Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	46d	1	0.65mi
4699 Meadow Lake Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	3.0	2148	$2,500	$1.16	46d	1	0.68mi
400 Brown Pl Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,000	$1.63	46d	1	0.92mi
215 Southgate Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1994	$2,095	$1.05	46d	1	0.96mi
4737 Airmen Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,100	$1.15	46d	1	0.98mi
713 Presscott St Crestview, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,295	$1.06	46d	1	1.36mi
609 Prairie St Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,775	$1.24	15d	1	1.41mi
514 Boulder St Crestview, FL	4.0	3.0	2102	$2,400	$1.14	46d	1	1.43mi
153 Nicole Ln Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1985	$2,000	$1.01	46d	1	1.44mi
157 Blooming Cv Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,995	$1.16	46d	1	1.47mi
201 Lyla Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,999	$1.16	23d	1	1.48mi
201 Lyla Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,095	$1.21	15d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2022-04-18
   price $1,800
4. 2009-04-23
   soldstatus $137,000
5. 2009-04-20
   soldstatus $137,000 939-char remark

   Show marketing remark (939 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION IN SOUTH CRESTVIEW ONLY MINUTES TO DUKE FIELD AND EGLIN AFB. THIS SECLUDED SUBDIVISION OFFERS A 30 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE SHOPPING AND DINING ALONG THE EMERALD COAST. INSIDE, THERE ARE TILED FLOORS IN THE FOYER, BOTH BATHROOMS,THE BREAKFAST NOOK AND THE KITCHEN. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A TILED BREAKFAST BAR AND A BREAKFAST NOOK WITH A BAY WINDOW OVERLOOKING THE BACK YARD.THE LIVING ROOM HAS A VAULTED CEILING WITH PLANT SHELVES AND A TILE SURROUNDED CORNER GAS FIREPLACE.THERE IS A FORMAL DINING ROOM AT THE ENTRY WITH FRENCH DOORS. TILED FLOORS ARE IN BOTH BATHROOMS,THE FOYER,KITCHEN AND BREAKFAST BAR. THE 4TH BEDROOM COULD ALSO SERVE AS A FORMAL DINING ROOM BY THE FOYER WITH FRENCH DOORS.THE SELLER IS OFFERING A ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY TO THE BUYERS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING. THIS HOME IS IN NEED OF MINOR TOUCH-UPS BUT IS A GREAT HOME, IN A GREAT LOCATION, AT A GREAT PRICE. TAKE A LOOK TODAY AT ALL THE EXTRAS FOR THE MONEY!

6. 2009-01-25
   listed $149,900 939-char remark

   Show marketing remark (939 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION IN SOUTH CRESTVIEW ONLY MINUTES TO DUKE FIELD AND EGLIN AFB. THIS SECLUDED SUBDIVISION OFFERS A 30 MINUTE DRIVE TO THE SHOPPING AND DINING ALONG THE EMERALD COAST. INSIDE, THERE ARE TILED FLOORS IN THE FOYER, BOTH BATHROOMS,THE BREAKFAST NOOK AND THE KITCHEN. THE KITCHEN OFFERS A TILED BREAKFAST BAR AND A BREAKFAST NOOK WITH A BAY WINDOW OVERLOOKING THE BACK YARD.THE LIVING ROOM HAS A VAULTED CEILING WITH PLANT SHELVES AND A TILE SURROUNDED CORNER GAS FIREPLACE.THERE IS A FORMAL DINING ROOM AT THE ENTRY WITH FRENCH DOORS. TILED FLOORS ARE IN BOTH BATHROOMS,THE FOYER,KITCHEN AND BREAKFAST BAR. THE 4TH BEDROOM COULD ALSO SERVE AS A FORMAL DINING ROOM BY THE FOYER WITH FRENCH DOORS.THE SELLER IS OFFERING A ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY TO THE BUYERS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING. THIS HOME IS IN NEED OF MINOR TOUCH-UPS BUT IS A GREAT HOME, IN A GREAT LOCATION, AT A GREAT PRICE. TAKE A LOOK TODAY AT ALL THE EXTRAS FOR THE MONEY!

7. 1993-06-01
   soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$446
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 58,889
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,290
• Household income: $74,369
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.52%
• Current HPI: 261.1557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+538.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $230,000 ECAR
• 2022-04-18 Price Changed $1,800 RENT.
• 2009-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2009-04-20 Sold (MLS) $137,000 ECAR
• 2009-01-25 Listed $149,900 ECAR
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,204 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.