78 Carr Farms Rd · Roxboro, NC 27574

$199,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1979 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

🌿 10.09 Acres of Opportunity - Room to Roam, Grow & Create Your Vision! 🐓 If you've been searching for land with flexibility and potential, this is it. This unique offering includes two parcels totaling 10.09 acres with no known restrictions, so bring your chickens, animals, hobbies, and big plans. The property features a manufactured doublewide, a large shop, and multiple outbuildings, offering immediate utility for storage, workspace, or agricultural use. The existing home provides a place to enjoy the property while you plan, build, or expand to suit your needs. With expansive acreage, open space, and privacy, this property is ideal for a mini farm, homestead, or investment oppo

Key facts

• 10.09 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $200k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $151,691
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $412,952
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,715/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $786	-5% $729	+0% $673	+5% $616	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $575	+0% $673	+5% $770	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $724	base $673	+0.5pp $621	+1.0pp $568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $199,900 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $199,900
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $219,900 Active
18. 2026-04-27
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,715
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $6,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $219,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,715 · +56.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.