2862 Stallion Dr · Orlando, FL 32822

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · Manufactured · 197 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $198k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Starlight Ranch a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have COMING SOON a brand new 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1198.08 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in Orlando, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, natural light, etc. . The kitchen boasts features like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, etc, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a pea

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Dual vanities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2862 Stallion Dr, Orlando FL 32822; Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-04-28
• Financial info: List price $174,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Living area approximately 1,198

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Windley plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,670
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4704 Dunkeld Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	0mo	$222,000	$165	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,125
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,444
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32822

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3007 Horse Shoe Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,499	$1.47	13d	1	0.46mi
4658 Commander Dr #834 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	934	$1,600	$1.71	2d	1	0.48mi
4658 Commander Dr #833 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	934	$1,450	$1.55	24d	1	0.48mi
6920 Edgefield Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	804	$1,600	$1.99	20d	1	0.49mi
5927 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,980	$1.51	22d	1	0.50mi
5975 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1236	$2,015	$1.63	4d	12	0.51mi
4630 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,750	$1.96	11d	3	0.52mi
6960 Gibraltar Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,500	$1.08	24d	1	0.52mi
5926 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$2,125	$1.63	15d	1	0.52mi
5974 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,735	$1.64	22d	1	0.54mi
4504 Commander Dr #1828 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	934	$1,450	$1.55	14d	1	0.54mi
4512 Commander Dr #1736 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	934	$1,350	$1.45	22d	1	0.55mi
2760 Ranch House Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,899	$1.40	15d	1	0.56mi
5848 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	0.59mi
4528 Commander Dr #2011 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,895	$1.51	18d	1	0.60mi
5824 Lake Pointe Village Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1415	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	0.60mi
4536 Commander Dr #1517 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,595	$1.51	14d	1	0.62mi
4532 Commander Dr #2131 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,450	$1.38	3d	1	0.63mi
4882 S Semoran Blvd #1408 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	851	$1,500	$1.76	24d	1	0.64mi
4548 Commander Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	934	$1,500	$1.61	24d	1	0.65mi
4818 S Semoran Blvd #503 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	851	$1,500	$1.76	24d	1	0.67mi
4314 Pershing Pointe Pl #7 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,500	$1.49	22d	1	0.68mi
4838 S Semoran Blvd #902 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	851	$1,500	$1.76	24d	1	0.69mi
4862 S Semoran Blvd #2002 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	851	$1,395	$1.64	24d	1	0.70mi
4834 S Semoran Blvd #1202 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	851	$1,600	$1.88	24d	1	0.70mi
4403 S Semoran Blvd #6 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,095	$1.47	8d	1	0.73mi
4407 S Semoran Blvd #2 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,860	$1.30	24d	1	0.73mi
4252 Pershing Pointe Pl #4 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,650	$1.64	24d	1	0.73mi
4240 Pershing Pointe Pl #2 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,500	$1.49	10d	1	0.75mi
4269 S Semoran Blvd #2 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	0.78mi
4267 S Semoran Blvd #14 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,550	$1.28	24d	1	0.82mi
4148 Pershing Pointe Pl #1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,275	$1.27	14d	1	0.82mi
4148 Pershing Pointe Pl Unit PA4148-1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,275	$1.27	24d	1	0.82mi
4148 Pershing Pointe Pl #1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,275	$1.27	15d	1	0.82mi
4124 Pershing Pointe Pl Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,425	$1.42	2d	1	0.84mi
4117 S Semoran Blvd #22 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,499	$1.24	8d	1	0.86mi
5575 Rosebriar Way Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,862	$1.90	2d	6	0.88mi
3912 Atrium Dr Unit L7 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	820	$1,700	$2.07	20d	1	0.92mi
4004 Atrium Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	820	$1,495	$1.82	24d	1	0.95mi
3960 Southpointe Dr #533 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$1,800	$1.72	8d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 179 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 67,081
• Household income: $56,540
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4246.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 36% White 17% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 60% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.17%
• Current HPI: 355.5775
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B