Pedernales Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$288,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Combined family room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• FOURTH BEDROOM
• COMBINED FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $288,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,127.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $254,311 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,127
• List price: $288,990
• Delta: -21.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13220 Harbor Point Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+1%)	1mo	$354,990	$195	79
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+7%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	78
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-3%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	77
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,804 (+0%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	77
3026 Banyan Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+3%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	71
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	66
13016 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,963 (+9%)	0mo	$312,990	$159	62
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	62
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-9%)	1mo	$284,900	$174	57
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-10%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	55
13009 Oleander Bay Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,040 (+13%)	0mo	$325,000	$159	52
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,063 (+15%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-85,849
• Equity at exit: $55,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-100,493
• Equity at exit: $32,002

Cash invested: $103,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,941
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,552/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,238

Max offer price $305,400

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,532
• Closing costs: $11,104
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.04mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	2d	22	1.11mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $288,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $288,990 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

15. 2025-04-01
    listed $289,990 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,733
• − Property taxes: −$5,552
• − Insurance: −$1,851
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − Depreciation: −$10,767
• Taxable loss: −$11,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Texas City, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $289,990 Zillow