2845 E Hatch Rd #12 · Ceres, CA 95351

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition Est $163k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SPACIOUS CORNER LOT HOME Welcome to this beautifully maintained home located in the desirable Voyager Cove Mobile Home Community. Offering approximately 1440 square feet of living space, this home features 2bathrooms, and the potential for a 3rd bedroom, providing flexibility for families, guests or a home office. Enjoy comfortable living with generous room sizes, ample storage and a warm welcoming atmosphere in an all age community. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, schools, parks and freeway access, this home offers both comfort and convenience. This property is a Must See!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Near restaurants

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• AMPLE STORAGE
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in Stanislaus County (postal code 95351); Directions: Mitchell Road to Hatch Road
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry; Sewer: Other; No water source specified
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide unit; Built in 1970; Located at 2845 E Hatch Rd #12, Modesto, CA
• Construction: Holiday House make; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Corner lot with landscaped front; Shed(s) on property; Other-type roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven and range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including a master bedroom)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in gas oven and built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Dining and living room combined; Living room with additional features (unspecified)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area present (details unspecified); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $968 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,266/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1964% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.85%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,720
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$67,500	$47	98
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$128,000	$89	92
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$110,000	$76	77
2845 E Hatch Rd #44	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	23mo	$160,000	$114	70
2841 Fowler #37	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	65
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (-11%)	1mo	$145,000	$113	49
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	44
2841 Fowler #141	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	12mo	$185,000	$114	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $42,379
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $116,397
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	21d	1	0.14mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	43d	1	0.41mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	13d	1	0.51mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	13d	1	0.74mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	23d	1	0.85mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.96mi
1301 Richland Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,738	$1.91	13d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 598-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $10,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,480
• After-tax cash flow: $9,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, flooring, and cabinet replacements, along with a new awning, would significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn but not damaged
• Minor Bathroom cabinets — Worn but not damaged
• Minor Awning — Worn but functional

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace linoleum flooring with tile — Tile flooring is more durable and visually appealing
• Resale Replace kitchen and bathroom cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace awning — A new awning enhances curb appeal and provides shade

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn but not damaged	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom cabinets · Worn but not damaged	Minor	$500–3,000
Awning · Worn but functional	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace linoleum flooring with tile — Tile flooring is more durable and visually appealing ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen and bathroom cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace awning — A new awning enhances curb appeal and provides shade ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B