518 Lakeview Ave · McComb, MS 39648

$99,700

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $84k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

x

Key facts

• New stove
• Remodeled kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• NEW STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.5% in McComb — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccomb School District (town): math 15% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $689 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,204 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,694
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Lakeview Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	920 (-4%)	2mo	$89,500	$97	90
511 Lakeview Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+11%)	1mo	$69,000	$65	79
502 Marion	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	899 (-6%)	18mo	$90,000	$100	60
302 Laurel	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (+1%)	20mo	$84,500	$87	55
507 N James Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (+7%)	22mo	$49,000	$48	48
805 Howe St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	890 (-8%)	18mo	$39,900	$45	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,364
• Equity at exit: $14,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,747
• Equity at exit: $8,620

Cash invested: $27,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39648

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$523
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $99,700

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,925
• Closing costs: $2,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,700 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,700 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,700 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,700 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,700 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,700 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,700 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,700 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,700 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,700 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,700 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,700 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,700 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,700 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,700 Active
16. 2009-10-19
    soldstatus
17. 2009-10-09
    soldstatus 1-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1 chars)

    x

18. 2009-04-08
    listed $79,900 1-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1 chars)

    x

19. 2008-10-02
    soldstatus
20. 2008-04-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,585
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,900
• Taxable loss: −$146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$35
• After-tax cash flow: $1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccomb School District
• NCES district ID: 2802880
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,855
• Composite: 12.26/100
• National rank: #9645
• State rank: #106 of 130 in MS

Livability — McComb

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McComb, MS
• Population (ZIP): 19,767

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 32% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.61%
• Current HPI: 92.2495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+24.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,700 FSBO.com
• 2009-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-04-08 Listed $79,900 MLSU
• 2008-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.