1000 E Central Ave #51 · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$127,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2008 $84/sqft · 6% above area Est $121k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an especially nice, clean 2008 Palm Harbor manufactured home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, with vaulted ceilings throughout, lots of windows making the home bright and cheery, an open concept, split floor plan with a living room plus a family room and a large covered front porch/deck. The home is located in the desirable Silver Glen Community 55+ park. The lot features a low maintenance yard, a 2 car tandem carport and a storage shed with power and lights. The park features a clubhouse, a pool, access to a public biking/walking trail and is close to shopping, dining and medical facilities. Don't miss out on this exceptional home on a desirable lot in a nice park in beautiful Sutherlin!

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Open concept
• Split floor plan

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• PRIVATE WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Sutherlin Primary School (296 students, 67% FRL); Sutherlin Middle School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 289 students, 65% FRL); Sutherlin High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 361 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 55% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $128k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,850 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.00%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,640
• List price: $127,500
• Delta: 5.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 E Central Ave #2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	7mo	$75,000	$50	94
1000 E Central Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-1%)	5mo	$125,000	$83	92
1200 E Central Ave #101	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+0%)	7mo	$95,000	$63	88
1200 E Central Ave Unit Sp 38	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	9mo	$125,000	$83	86
1200 E Central Ave Unit 68A	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (0%)	7mo	$80,000	$53	82
1200 E Central Ave #62	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$65,000	$45	80
1200 E Central Ave #55	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	7mo	$55,500	$41	64
1316 Sunny Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (+8%)	5mo	$283,000	$174	64
550 S State St #139	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+2%)	6mo	$125,800	$82	55
550 S State St #115	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	2mo	$100,000	$62	54
550 S State St #126	0.69mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,404 (-7%)	1mo	$96,000	$68	46
232 Heavenly Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	8mo	$300,000	$231	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,691
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $66,976
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $775/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,079

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $690	-5% $654	+0% $618	+5% $582	+10% $546
Rent	-10% $471	-5% $544	+0% $618	+5% $691	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $650	base $618	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-13
   listed $127,500 Active 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   This is an especially nice, clean 2008 Palm Harbor manufactured home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, with vaulted ceilings throughout, lots of windows making the home bright and cheery, an open concept, split floor plan with a living room plus a family room and a large covered front porch/deck. The home is located in the desirable Silver Glen Community 55+ park. The lot features a low maintenance yard, a 2 car tandem carport and a storage shed with power and lights. The park features a clubhouse, a pool, access to a public biking/walking trail and is close to shopping, dining and medical facilities. Don't miss out on this exceptional home on a desirable lot in a nice park in beautiful Sutherlin!

2. 2014-08-06
   soldstatus $43,500 Sold 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Very nice Palm Harbor MHD, 3 BR, 2BA, in Silver Glen Park in Sutherlin. Low maintained yard, covered deck, 2 car carport, storage shed, club house, pool, and close to shopping. 55 plus park.

3. 2014-08-04
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Very nice Palm Harbor MHD, 3 BR, 2BA, in Silver Glen Park in Sutherlin. Low maintained yard, covered deck, 2 car carport, storage shed, club house, pool, and close to shopping. 55 plus park.

4. 2014-07-21
   listed $50,000 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Very nice Palm Harbor MHD, 3 BR, 2BA, in Silver Glen Park in Sutherlin. Low maintained yard, covered deck, 2 car carport, storage shed, club house, pool, and close to shopping. 55 plus park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$39/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$775
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $5,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $6,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+155.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $127,500 RMLS
• 2014-08-06 Sold (MLS) $43,500 RMLS
• 2014-08-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2014-07-21 Listed $50,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $775 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.