2307 New Point Comfort Hwy · Mathews, VA 23109

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 444 Days on market

Built 1917 0.75 ac lot $70/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 444 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 444 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 444 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,620
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -67.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2421 New Point Comfort Hwy	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,578 (-4%)	5mo	$280,000	$177	79
2101 New Point Comfort Hwy	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+1%)	13mo	$350,000	$212	74
2195 New Point Comfort Hwy	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,575 (-4%)	16mo	$325,000	$206	73
324 Todds Creek Ln	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (-9%)	14mo	$385,000	$259	48
216 Fern Hall Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,580 (-3%)	23mo	$74,333	$47	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $24,836
• Equity at exit: $43,195

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $72,380
• Equity at exit: $60,580

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23109

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $330	+0% $298	+5% $265	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $244	+0% $298	+5% $352	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $327	base $298	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 444 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 439 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 438 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 429 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 428 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 427 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 426 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $115,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

17. 2026-02-03
    price $119,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

18. 2025-09-11
    price $125,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

19. 2025-06-23
    price $129,000

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

20. 2025-06-23
    price $129,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

21. 2025-04-25
    listed $135,000 Active
22. 2025-04-23
    price $135,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

23. 2025-03-31
    listed $145,000 Active 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home has additional room which could be used as bedroom if closet were added.

24. 2024-07-02
    soldstatus $108,592
25. 2021-09-01
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$18/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$442
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 2,525

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Current HPI: 144.0053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $119,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $129,000 WMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $129,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $135,000 WMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $145,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $108,592 Public Records
• 2021-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.