12048 Five Waters Cir · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$427,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · Condo public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2016 $393/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This gorgeous two bedroom, two bath villa with a den is situated on one of the most serene and peaceful lots in Marina Bay. The home features central air conditioning, three walk in closets, and soaring 10 foot ceilings with crown molding throughout, including a raised ceiling in the primary bedroom. The upgraded kitchen offers granite countertops, enhanced cabinetry and appliances, and convenient pull out shelves. Bathrooms are finished with quartz countertops and custom mirrors. Ceiling fans with integrated lighting add comfort throughout the home. This must see villa offers an exceptional blend of style, comfort, and tranquility.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Enhanced cabinetry
• Walk in closets

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENHANCED CABINETRY
• PULL OUT SHELVES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool; Association fee includes irrigation water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Reclaimed irrigation water
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces south; View available
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Community pool; Rectangular lot; North exposure; Lake frontage / waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Den
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Living/Dining room; Separate shower; Shower only; Walk-in closet(s); Single hung windows with impact glass
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $427k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $427k).
• Recommended offer: $389k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 811 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,424/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,570 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-61,156
• Equity at exit: $63,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-72,027
• Equity at exit: $36,919

Cash invested: $119,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 811
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,239
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,597/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$393
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$929
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,042

Max offer price $427,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,750
• Closing costs: $12,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12016 Five Waters Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	23d	1	0.05mi
11617 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$3,100	$1.38	15d	1	0.27mi
11593 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1985	$2,800	$1.41	23d	1	0.28mi
12171 Treeline Ave Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1321	$2,606	$1.97	3d	23	0.30mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	23d	1	0.31mi
11541 Stonecreek Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2147	$3,300	$1.54	23d	1	0.34mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	23d	1	0.41mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	14d	1	0.41mi
11869 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1646	$5,000	$3.04	23d	1	0.43mi
10271 Glastonbury Cir #102 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$4,500	$2.90	23d	1	0.43mi
10900 Glenhurst St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	2d	1	0.47mi
10952 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$4,000	$2.53	23d	1	0.49mi
10535 Carolina Willow Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,300	$1.78	21d	1	0.52mi
10879 Rutherford Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1566	$3,500	$2.23	23d	1	0.58mi
10280 Crepe Jasmine Ln Unit 1546286P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,526	$2.88	15d	1	0.73mi
11701 Avingston Ter Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1553	$5,500	$3.54	14d	1	0.77mi
11225 Lithgow Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$8,000	$3.72	23d	1	0.78mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	15d	1	0.89mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	23d	1	0.89mi
11230 Suffield St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1560	$8,500	$5.45	23d	1	0.93mi
12908 New Market St #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2198	$3,000	$1.36	23d	1	0.99mi
10121 Colonial Country Club Blvd #1802 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,800	$3.14	3d	1	1.02mi
10130 Colonial Country Club Blvd #707 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$4,900	$4.39	23d	1	1.03mi
10128 Colonial Country Club Blvd #602 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,600	$3.01	23d	1	1.04mi
11012 Mill Creek Way #2205 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$5,500	$3.14	23d	1	1.06mi
11011 Mill Creek Way #1307 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,000	$3.63	23d	1	1.09mi
12531 Villagio Way Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1913	$8,500	$4.44	23d	1	1.09mi
10112 Colonial Country Club Blvd #209 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$5,000	$3.27	23d	1	1.12mi
10751 Palazzo Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,000	$4.05	23d	1	1.13mi
10711 Palazzo Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$3,900	$3.10	15d	2	1.13mi
10711 Palazzo Way Unit 203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$5,300	$4.22	21d	1	1.13mi
10111 Colonial Country Club Blvd #2308 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,000	$1.53	11d	1	1.14mi
10791 Palazzo Way #301 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,300	$3.81	23d	1	1.15mi
11029 Mill Creek Way #405 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	23d	1	1.18mi
10700 Palazzo Way #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,000	$3.60	21d	1	1.18mi
11442 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$9,500	$4.73	23d	1	1.19mi
11033 Mill Creek Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,400	$3.92	23d	1	1.19mi
10602 Camarelle Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1690	$5,500	$3.25	23d	1	1.20mi
10820 Palazzo Way #203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,400	$4.37	23d	1	1.22mi
10020 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	23d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $393 · $4,716/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $427,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $427,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-04-11
   price $427,000
4. 2026-02-04
   listed $437,600 Active
5. 2023-08-29
   historical
6. 2023-07-11
   price $520,000
7. 2023-06-25
   price $534,000
8. 2023-06-01
   status Active
9. 2023-05-29
   status Pending
10. 2023-03-30
    listed $539,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,597 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,597 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,597
• − Insurance: −$2,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,247
• − Management: −$4,247
• − HOA: −$4,716
• − Depreciation: −$12,422
• Taxable loss: −$3,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$766
• After-tax cash flow: $4,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $427,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $437,600 FORTMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $520,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-06-25 Price Changed $534,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-06-01 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2023-05-29 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-03-30 Listed $539,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,597 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.