205 Elk Brook Rd · Downsville, NY 12776

$219,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1980 3.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

Key facts

• 3.69 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.9% in Downsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#959 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,673 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $52,818
• Equity at exit: $139,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $164,539
• Equity at exit: $254,913

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12776

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,439/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $184,960

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-131	+0% $-193	+5% $-255	+10% $-317
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-259	+0% $-193	+5% $-127	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-137	base $-193	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-02-14
   soldstatus $225,000
2. 2025-01-31
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

3. 2024-10-24
   status Pending
4. 2024-10-05
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

5. 2024-10-05
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

6. 2024-10-05
   status Pending 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

7. 2024-09-24
   listed $219,000 Active
8. 2024-09-23
   listed $219,000 Active 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

9. 2024-09-23
   listed $219,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

10. 2024-09-23
    listed $219,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    205 Elk Brook Road is more than a residence — it is a lifestyle that promises tranquility and serenity in one of New York’s most desired locations, just outside of Roscoe and along the banks of the Beaverkill River. Now is the perfect time to make owning this beautiful property your reality. With over 380 feet at the rivers bank, this property sits on a dead-end street, with little to no traffic. Enjoy the comfort of the well cared for existing mobile home on the land while you build your dream country abode. There’s an RV on the property that comes with the sale, a nice addition for all those visitors that will want to enjoy your little piece of riverfront paradise.

11. 2007-07-13
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,439 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,439
• − Insurance: −$1,892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$6,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Downsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #959
• US rank: #18785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,046

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Current HPI: 298.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+542.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $125,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-24 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-10-05 Pending — GBAOR
• 2024-10-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-24 Listed $219,000 PWMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Listed $219,000 GBAOR
• 2024-09-23 Listed $219,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,439 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.