396 Westchase · Conroe, TX 77316

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 2,099 sqft lot $166/sqft · 17% below area Est $180k · 17% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to own an adorable home just minutes from Lake Conroe! This comfortable and functional 1-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features fresh paint and new carpet in the bedrooms completed in May 2026, with tile flooring throughout remaining areas. Enjoy an inviting eat-in kitchen and family room filled with natural light from abundant windows, all open to the kitchen featuring granite countertops, nice cabinet space, and a pantry. The home also offers a spacious utility room for your added convenience. The primary suite includes a large walk-in shower and spacious closet. Outside, you'll find 2 parking spaces and NO BACK NEIGHBORS for added privacy! Conveniently located close to

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS UTILITY ROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Association: Spectrum; Annual association fee of $384

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range / free-standing range; Microwave; Disposal; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 9; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 8; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 8; Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining combined; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,433
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -17.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16938 W Lynbrook St	0.12mi	3/2.0	940 (+4%)	5mo	$157,900	$168	83
16942 W Lynbrook St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-8%)	2mo	$137,900	$166	75
16725 E Hammon	0.28mi	3/2.0	958 (+6%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	72
16934 W Lynbrook St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	830 (-8%)	4mo	$140,000	$169	72
16900 West Juneau	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+13%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	72
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+14%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	66
241 Ridgeside	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+12%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	64
822 Omeara	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	837 (-7%)	3mo	$156,900	$187	62
16891 W Dounreay St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+14%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	61
16895 W Dounreay St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+14%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	61
16899 W Dounreay St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+14%)	6mo	$161,900	$157	61
16724 E Forrestal	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-13%)	6mo	$128,500	$165	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,352
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,604
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,455/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,367

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $310	+0% $268	+5% $226	+10% $184
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $201	+0% $268	+5% $336	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $306	base $268	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.07mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.14mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	25d	1	0.46mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $149,000 Active 788-char remark
17. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,455
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,455 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.