20307 Palm Blvd · Covington, LA 70435

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $261k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Energy Smart home featuring an open and split floor plan with a convenient computer nook. Enjoy a large fenced backyard, birch cabinets, ceramic tile flooring in wet areas, and granite countertops in the bathrooms and kitchen! Energy-efficient features include Low E-3 double-insulated windows, radiant barrier roof decking, a 14 SEER AC with heat pump, and a 40-gallon electric water heater with heat trap. Move-in ready and designed for comfort, efficiency, and everyday living!

Key facts

• Energy smart home
• Computer nook
• Birch cabinets

Tags

• ENERGY SMART HOME
• OPEN AND SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• COMPUTER NOOK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BIRCH CABINETS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: appliances, insulation, water heater, and windows; Lot is rectangular and located outside city limits (dimensions: 60x120x60)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with two parking spaces and garage door opener
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Excellent condition
• Construction: Brick, stucco, and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Concrete covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Carbon monoxide detector; Granite countertops; Pantry; Screens on windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-193/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E. E. Lyon Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #79 of 646 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 63% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,214 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,542
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74509 Theta Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,649 (0%)	5mo	$249,900	$152	96
74526 Theta Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,649 (0%)	8mo	$258,000	$156	91
74326 Eta Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,649 (0%)	9mo	$230,000	$139	85
74305 Theta Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,649 (0%)	14mo	$250,000	$152	80
74317 Theta Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-6%)	12mo	$230,000	$148	72
20413 Palm Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-14%)	10mo	$243,200	$171	66
74453 Gamma Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-12%)	6mo	$229,000	$158	61
20240 Thibodeaux Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-8%)	15mo	$257,500	$169	60
661 Terrace Lake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-2%)	12mo	$291,000	$180	55
278 Lourdes Ln	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-7%)	2mo	$300,000	$195	52
653 Terrace Lake Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,825 (+11%)	6mo	$285,000	$156	45
628 Terrace Lake Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,825 (+11%)	4mo	$290,000	$159	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,766
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,991
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $242,165

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $53	+0% $-16	+5% $-85	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-94	+0% $-16	+5% $62	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $46	base $-16	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20104 Palm Blvd Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,750	$1.22	18d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 512-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $245,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-69.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $245,000 GSREIN
• 2016-01-29 Sold (MLS) $165,900 GSREIN
• 2015-10-22 Listed $165,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-10-22 Listed $165,900 GSREIN
• 2014-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $800,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.