3 Lincoln Row · Connellsville, PA 15425

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,758 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1900 0.77 ac lot $13/sqft · 82% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home tucked away in town! Large level lot with a stream running behind the home! Huge Living room, with new flooring, spacious dining room and kitchen, with tons of cabinet space on the First Floor. Full bathroom and side porch and front porch too! Two bedrooms upstairs and another living space that could easily be a 3rd bedroom. Unfinished office/bedroom space off the Master bedroom upstairs.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Front porch
• Level lot

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• STREAM
• NEW FLOORING
• TONS OF CABINET SPACE
• SIDE PORCH
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($447/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($963 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 6.8% in Connellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#602 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime D-.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.94%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,393
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -82.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-2,989
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $1,713
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15425

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $35,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Spacious home tucked away in town! Large level lot with a stream running behind the home! Huge Living room, with new flooring, spacious dining room and kitchen, with tons of cabinet space on the First Floor. Full bathroom and side porch and front porch too! Two bedrooms upstairs and another living space that could easily be a 3rd bedroom. Unfinished office/bedroom space off the Master bedroom upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$5,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$925
• − Management: −$925
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Connellsville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #5763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connellsville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 17,752

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.63%
• Current HPI: 193.6086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $35,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $782 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.