4097 Jarvis St · Blasdell, NY 14219

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1940 7,200 sqft lot Est $161k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect first time home or for someone looking to down size! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch with first floor laundry has many new updates with a nice large backyard. Updates include newer roof, windows, updated bathroom, Hot water tank and trim work. This homes great location is just minutes from the Mall, the village of Hamburg, the city and the lake.

Key facts

• Close to main roads
• Close to food
• Close to shops

Tags

• CLOSE TO SHOPS
• CLOSE TO FOOD
• CLOSE TO MAIN ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Blasdell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $135k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.99%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,548
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4097 Jarvis St	0.00mi	2/1.0	787 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$121	99
3704 Grafton Ave	0.75mi	2/1.5	884 (+12%)	8mo	$180,000	$204	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,762
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,660
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14219

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,287/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,314

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	1d	13	0.80mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	1d	12	1.06mi
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	1d	1	1.35mi
4227 E Allen St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	1d	1	1.38mi
4678 Big Tree Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	925	$1,447	$1.56	1d	2	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $135,000
3. 2026-03-04
   status Active
4. 2026-02-22
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-12
   price $140,000
6. 2026-02-03
   price $145,000
7. 2026-01-23
   listed $155,000 Active
8. 2016-09-23
   soldstatus $62,540 Closed Sale or Rented 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Perfect first time home or for someone looking to down size! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch with first floor laundry has many new updates with a nice large backyard. Updates include newer roof, windows, updated bathroom, Hot water tank and trim work. This homes great location is just minutes from the Mall, the village of Hamburg, the city and the lake.

9. 2016-09-23
   soldstatus $60,770

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Perfect first time home or for someone looking to down size! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch with first floor laundry has many new updates with a nice large backyard. Updates include newer roof, windows, updated bathroom, Hot water tank and trim work. This homes great location is just minutes from the Mall, the village of Hamburg, the city and the lake.

10. 2016-06-21
    status Pending Sale 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Perfect first time home or for someone looking to down size! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch with first floor laundry has many new updates with a nice large backyard. Updates include newer roof, windows, updated bathroom, Hot water tank and trim work. This homes great location is just minutes from the Mall, the village of Hamburg, the city and the lake.

11. 2016-05-30
    listed $62,500 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Perfect first time home or for someone looking to down size! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch with first floor laundry has many new updates with a nice large backyard. Updates include newer roof, windows, updated bathroom, Hot water tank and trim work. This homes great location is just minutes from the Mall, the village of Hamburg, the city and the lake.

12. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $60,700
13. 1996-04-04
    soldstatus $59,600
14. 1994-09-29
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,287 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,287 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,287
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Blasdell

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,894

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.33%
• Current HPI: 332.7314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $135,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $145,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,770 Public Records
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $62,540 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-05-30 Listed $62,500 WNYREIS
• 2006-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,700 Public Records
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,600 Public Records
• 1994-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,287 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.