15110 Ranier Ave · Lyman, MS 39503

$224,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,763 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2014 7,405 sqft lot $128/sqft · 14% below area Est $261k · 14% under $200/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2014, this home offers the perfect blend of modern construction and a prime location. The neighborhood features newer homes with covenants in place and HOA, providing both consistency and flexibility. Inside, the home showcases 3cm granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, hardwood flooring in the living room and hallway, stylish pendant lighting over the kitchen bar, and stainless-steel appliances--creating a clean, modern feel throughout. Situated in a sought-after area with great schools, this home is ideal for families or first-time buyers looking for comfort, quality, and convenience. Move-in ready and full of value, this home qualifies for FHA, VA, conventional, bank financing, and cash.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Pendant lighting
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• PENDANT LIGHTING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIME LOCATION
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,261 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.46%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,819
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -13.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16951 Acron St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-3%)	4mo	$235,000	$137	81
16755 Desmare St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-4%)	1mo	$255,000	$151	79
15085 Baylor Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,719 (-2%)	6mo	$229,000	$133	77
16959 Acron St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-7%)	1mo	$239,900	$146	77
16823 Alcorn Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$148	76
16418 Millsaps Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,885 (+7%)	1mo	$285,000	$151	67
16309 Millsaps Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-7%)	8mo	$246,300	$150	67
16974 Alcorn Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-8%)	6mo	$250,000	$154	66
15036 Baylor Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-11%)	7mo	$228,000	$145	65
16255 Millsaps Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+10%)	4mo	$295,500	$153	64
16345 Millsaps Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+10%)	7mo	$280,000	$145	62
14496 3rd Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	6mo	$179,900	$105	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,720
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,179
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $183,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-171	+0% $-234	+5% $-298	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-378	-5% $-306	+0% $-234	+5% $-163	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-121	-0.5pp $-177	base $-234	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15395 Percy St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	45d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,990 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,990 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,990 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,990 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $224,990 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Built in 2014, this home offers the perfect blend of modern construction and a prime location. The neighborhood features newer homes with covenants in place and HOA, providing both consistency and flexibility. Inside, the home showcases 3cm granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, hardwood flooring in the living room and hallway, stylish pendant lighting over the kitchen bar, and stainless-steel appliances--creating a clean, modern feel throughout. Situated in a sought-after area with great schools, this home is ideal for families or first-time buyers looking for comfort, quality, and convenience. Move-in ready and full of value, this home qualifies for FHA, VA, conventional, bank financing, and cash.

17. 2021-10-01
    historical
18. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus
19. 2021-01-11
    historical
20. 2020-12-29
    listed $185,900
21. 2017-01-16
    listed $164,900
22. 2015-03-25
    soldstatus $159,500
23. 2015-03-20
    soldstatus
24. 2014-10-07
    listed $159,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+41.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $224,990 MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-12-29 Listed $185,900 MLSU
• 2017-01-16 Listed $164,900 MLSU
• 2015-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $159,500 Public Records
• 2015-03-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-10-07 Listed $159,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+37.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,312 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.