95 Union St · Springfield, VT 05156

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1845 0.38 ac lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY. This well-priced home is full of potential and ready for your cosmetic upgrades and a bit of sweat equity. Offering three bedrooms and two baths on a generous lot, it’s conveniently located near the hospital, shopping, and essential amenities. The spacious master bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the additional partially finished attic provides room for expansion or storage. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the grand wrap-around porch. A two-car garage and a new boiler add valuable practicality and peace of mind. With great bones and outstanding features, this is an excellent opportunity for affordable home ownership. Agents, please read private remarks.

Key facts

• New boiler
• Wrap-around porch
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• PARTIALLY FINISHED ATTIC
• NEW BOILER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($898/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Hill School (390 students, 47% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #24 of 26 statewide, top 92%, 254 students, 57% FRL); Springfield High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #35 of 48 statewide, top 79%, 325 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $199k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1845 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1845 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.61%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,924
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -0.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Bailey St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,664 (-7%)	13mo	$205,000	$123	70
32 Myrtle St	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,802 (+1%)	6mo	$135,000	$75	66
147 South St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-1%)	3mo	$299,000	$168	64
8 Center St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,538 (-14%)	10mo	$210,000	$137	62
81 Wall St	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,742 (-3%)	11mo	$245,000	$141	56
271 Cragiue Hill Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (-7%)	11mo	$195,000	$117	45
10 Derby Ct	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,616 (-10%)	9mo	$265,000	$164	44
137 Wall St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,038 (+14%)	0mo	$279,000	$137	41
79 Merrill St	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,048 (+14%)	1mo	$165,000	$81	40
122 Summer St	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,972 (+10%)	13mo	$307,000	$156	38
234 Harvard St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,556 (-13%)	10mo	$215,000	$138	37
84 Hunter St	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,534 (-14%)	10mo	$311,000	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,488
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,826
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05156

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,345/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $131	+0% $75	+5% $18	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $5	+0% $75	+5% $145	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $125	base $75	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-01-03
   status Active 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   CASH ONLY. This well-priced home is full of potential and ready for your cosmetic upgrades and a bit of sweat equity. Offering three bedrooms and two baths on a generous lot, it’s conveniently located near the hospital, shopping, and essential amenities. The spacious master bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the additional partially finished attic provides room for expansion or storage. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the grand wrap-around porch. A two-car garage and a new boiler add valuable practicality and peace of mind. With great bones and outstanding features, this is an excellent opportunity for affordable home ownership. Agents, please read private remarks.

10. 2025-12-28
    historical Active with Contract 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    CASH ONLY. This well-priced home is full of potential and ready for your cosmetic upgrades and a bit of sweat equity. Offering three bedrooms and two baths on a generous lot, it’s conveniently located near the hospital, shopping, and essential amenities. The spacious master bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the additional partially finished attic provides room for expansion or storage. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the grand wrap-around porch. A two-car garage and a new boiler add valuable practicality and peace of mind. With great bones and outstanding features, this is an excellent opportunity for affordable home ownership. Agents, please read private remarks.

11. 2025-12-13
    listed $199,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    CASH ONLY. This well-priced home is full of potential and ready for your cosmetic upgrades and a bit of sweat equity. Offering three bedrooms and two baths on a generous lot, it’s conveniently located near the hospital, shopping, and essential amenities. The spacious master bedroom features an ensuite bath, while the additional partially finished attic provides room for expansion or storage. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings on the grand wrap-around porch. A two-car garage and a new boiler add valuable practicality and peace of mind. With great bones and outstanding features, this is an excellent opportunity for affordable home ownership. Agents, please read private remarks.

12. 2025-07-28
    price $229,000
13. 2017-01-09
    soldstatus $72,000
14. 2017-01-06
    soldstatus $72,000 Closed
15. 2016-09-29
    status Pending
16. 2016-09-19
    historical Active with Contract
17. 2016-08-30
    status Active
18. 2016-07-29
    status Pending
19. 2016-07-28
    status Active
20. 2016-06-30
    status Pending
21. 2016-06-22
    historical Active with Contract
22. 2016-06-02
    price $70,000
23. 2016-05-31
    status Active
24. 2016-05-04
    status Pending
25. 2016-05-03
    historical Active with Contract
26. 2016-04-20
    status Active
27. 2016-04-11
    historical Active with Contract
28. 2016-03-31
    status Active
29. 2016-03-21
    status Pending
30. 2016-03-07
    historical Active with Contract
31. 2016-02-25
    price $80,000
32. 2016-01-24
    price $90,000
33. 2015-12-23
    listed $96,900 Active
34. 2015-11-17
    price $112,000
35. 2015-09-29
    price $115,000
36. 2015-06-29
    price $119,500
37. 2015-06-01
    price $126,000
38. 2005-09-14
    soldstatus $145,000
39. 2005-07-29
    soldstatus $145,000
40. 2005-05-18
    listed $154,900
41. 1997-09-08
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,063 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,345
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$589
• After-tax cash flow: $1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,028

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.22%
• Current HPI: 310.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+470.2% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-03 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-28 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $229,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-06 Sold (MLS) $72,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-09-29 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-09-19 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-08-30 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2016-07-29 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-07-28 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-30 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-22 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-06-02 Price Changed $70,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-05-31 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2016-05-04 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-05-03 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-20 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-11 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-03-31 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2016-03-21 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2016-03-07 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-02-25 Price Changed $80,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-01-24 Price Changed $90,000 PrimeMLS
• 2015-12-23 Listed $96,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-11-17 Price Changed $112,000 PrimeMLS
• 2015-09-29 Price Changed $115,000 PrimeMLS
• 2015-06-29 Price Changed $119,500 PrimeMLS
• 2015-06-01 Price Changed $126,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) $145,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-05-18 Listed $154,900 PrimeMLS
• 1997-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,345 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.