500 Flora Ct · Josephine, TX 75173

$334,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,727 sqft · Other public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 8,451 sqft lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $352k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this picturesque new construction home by longtime Dallas builder, Robbie Hale Homes. 500 Flora Ct is in the desirable Murray Manor Estates community in Josephine on a corner lot. Completed in February of this year, 2026, this home offers no MUD tax and low HOA fees. Step inside to a welcoming foyer, where a secondary hallway to your right leads to the additional bedrooms, utility room, and a full bath—creating a functional and private layout for family or guests. Continue into the spacious family room, highlighted by a stunning brick fireplace. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with white painted cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and durable vinyl flooring, offering both style and practicality. The generously sized primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the ensuite bathroom features separate vanities, a separate shower, a jetted tub, and a large walk-in closet. Interior finishes include elegant crown molding in formal areas, 5.5-inch baseboards, and vinyl flooring throughout the main living spaces, with carpet in all bedrooms and closets for added comfort. Outside, enjoy a fully landscaped yard complete with full sod, full sprinkler system, and a stained wood privacy fence with steel posts—designed for both beauty and durability. Energy efficiency will include R-38 blown in attic insulation, R-15 wall insulation, vinyl windows being dual paned windows, radiant barrier roof decking, and a high efficiency HVAC system. Builder has more info. Builder Pays for Title Policy, Survey and up to $20K towards closing costs.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Granite countertops
• Corner lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• CORNER LOT
• MURRAY MANOR ESTATES COMMUNITY
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• WHITE PAINTED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,859 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,614
• List price: $334,900
• Delta: -4.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $157,153
• Equity at exit: $301,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $482,183
• Equity at exit: $650,637

Cash invested: $93,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $265,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-299	+0% $-394	+5% $-489	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-474	+0% $-394	+5% $-314	+10% $-233
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-309	base $-394	+0.5pp $-481	+1.0pp $-569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,725
• Closing costs: $10,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.23mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.41mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.52mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	0.53mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.55mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.55mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.57mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.59mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	0.73mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	45d	1	0.73mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.77mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.77mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.80mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	0d	1	0.81mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	0.82mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.84mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	45d	1	0.86mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	0d	1	0.88mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.91mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	0.95mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	14d	1	0.95mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	45d	1	0.99mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	3d	1	1.01mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	12d	1	1.01mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	45d	1	1.02mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	3d	1	1.04mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	12d	1	1.04mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	17d	1	1.04mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	1.04mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	14d	1	1.04mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	12d	1	1.05mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	1.06mi
1177 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	45d	1	1.06mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.07mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.13mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.14mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	1.18mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	1.18mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.21mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	3d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $334,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $334,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $334,900 Active 1617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1617 chars)

    Discover this picturesque new construction home by longtime Dallas builder, Robbie Hale Homes. 500 Flora Ct is in the desirable Murray Manor Estates community in Josephine on a corner lot. Completed in February of this year, 2026, this home offers no MUD tax and low HOA fees. Step inside to a welcoming foyer, where a secondary hallway to your right leads to the additional bedrooms, utility room, and a full bath—creating a functional and private layout for family or guests. Continue into the spacious family room, highlighted by a stunning brick fireplace. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with white painted cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and durable vinyl flooring, offering both style and practicality. The generously sized primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the ensuite bathroom features separate vanities, a separate shower, a jetted tub, and a large walk-in closet. Interior finishes include elegant crown molding in formal areas, 5.5-inch baseboards, and vinyl flooring throughout the main living spaces, with carpet in all bedrooms and closets for added comfort. Outside, enjoy a fully landscaped yard complete with full sod, full sprinkler system, and a stained wood privacy fence with steel posts—designed for both beauty and durability. Energy efficiency will include R-38 blown in attic insulation, R-15 wall insulation, vinyl windows being dual paned windows, radiant barrier roof decking, and a high efficiency HVAC system. Builder has more info. Builder Pays for Title Policy, Survey and up to $20K towards closing costs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,050 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,129 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,078/yr (+$423/mo · 483.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,760
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,743
• Taxable loss: −$10,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $334,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,050 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.