105 Kelburn St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$104,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1900 3,000 sqft lot $96/sqft · 35% below area Est $160k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Kaisertown beauty! Located on a quiet, tree-lined street, this updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfort and convenience. Features include off-street parking and a storage shed. The first floor offers a bright living room, formal dining room, and a large eat-in kitchen with plenty of space to gather. A full bath, convenient first-floor laundry, and a versatile bonus room off the back—ideal for a home office, mudroom, or playroom—complete the main level. Upstairs you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space. Additional features include a partial basement with glass block windows and covered front and rear porches perfect for relaxing outdoors.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Formal dining room
• Storage shed

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.75%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,272
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -34.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Glenn St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,153 (+6%)	3mo	$15,000	$13	80
19 Spann St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-6%)	8mo	$170,000	$166	68
358 Weimar St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-4%)	2mo	$200,000	$190	66
217 Weiss St	0.36mi	3/1.0	993 (-9%)	3mo	$160,000	$161	65
295 Weimar St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,194 (+9%)	0mo	$209,000	$175	64
396 Weimar St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-5%)	10mo	$205,000	$197	61
405 Weimar St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+9%)	4mo	$197,500	$166	58
72 Weaver St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+8%)	4mo	$91,000	$77	57
286 Barnard St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,201 (+10%)	6mo	$185,000	$154	54
287 Fenton St	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+7%)	6mo	$235,000	$201	54
55 Avondale Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+8%)	9mo	$175,000	$148	50
102 Pomona Pl	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+13%)	2mo	$81,000	$66	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $68,127
• Equity at exit: $80,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $179,361
• Equity at exit: $159,421

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.67mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	14d	1	0.83mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	2d	1	0.84mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	23d	1	0.88mi
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.91mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	1.01mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	14d	1	1.13mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	43d	1	1.17mi
61 Princeton Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,300	$1.59	2d	1	1.21mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	1d	1	1.26mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	1.31mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	14d	1	1.33mi
696 Hopkins St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	1.34mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	10d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $109,900 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Kaisertown beauty! Located on a quiet, tree-lined street, this updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfort and convenience. Features include off-street parking and a storage shed. The first floor offers a bright living room, formal dining room, and a large eat-in kitchen with plenty of space to gather. A full bath, convenient first-floor laundry, and a versatile bonus room off the back—ideal for a home office, mudroom, or playroom—complete the main level. Upstairs you’ll find three generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space. Additional features include a partial basement with glass block windows and covered front and rear porches perfect for relaxing outdoors.

16. 2026-02-11
    historical
17. 2025-11-06
    price $109,900
18. 2025-09-16
    price $129,900
19. 2025-08-11
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 2025-07-22
    soldstatus $80,000
21. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2017-05-09
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale or Rented
23. 2017-04-07
    status Pending Sale
24. 2017-03-29
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
25. 2017-03-27
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 123.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $3,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $3,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+175.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-09 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-04-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-03-29 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.