3106 Sewell St · Rockford, IL 61109

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1955 5,663 sqft lot Est $99k · 19% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hidden great room the back Southeast Rockford 2 bedrooms 1 bath Fenced yard Full basement Attached 1 car garage Great schools Leaf filter gutter guard never clean gutters Estate sale be sold as is Note: the home is 5 minutes from Aldi and Schnucks 15 minutes from the mall

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Rec room
• Full basement

Tags

• REC ROOM
• FENCED YARD
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House; Approximately 1,000 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 5,663 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.26%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Sewell St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	994 (-1%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	82
3113 16th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+6%)	9mo	$125,000	$118	74
2834 Hanson St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,015 (+2%)	8mo	$90,000	$89	70
2710 Hanson St	0.52mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	8mo	$85,000	$87	66
3110 Horton St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	914 (-9%)	12mo	$117,000	$128	66
1729 Johnson Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	887 (-11%)	9mo	$118,000	$133	59
3126 8th St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (0%)	10mo	$95,000	$95	55
2821 Kinsey St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,078 (+8%)	12mo	$95,000	$88	53
1734 Sandy Hollow Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,147 (+15%)	8mo	$77,500	$68	49
2822 Sewell St	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (-15%)	7mo	$74,900	$88	48
2918 22nd St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (+12%)	4mo	$126,000	$113	43
2817 9th St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	874 (-13%)	1mo	$149,900	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $11,124
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $40,737
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61109

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $400	+0% $378	+5% $355	+10% $332
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $331	+0% $378	+5% $424	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $398	base $378	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2846 Lapey St Rockford, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	44d	1	0.45mi
1418 22nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.04mi
1420 22nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.04mi
1211 21st Pl Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	1.18mi
1209 21st Pl Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	1.18mi
2217 8th St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	44d	1	1.21mi
1213 39th Ave Rockford, IL	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	21d	1	1.33mi
1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	1.41mi
2723 Silent Wood Trl Unit 2735-7 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,310	$1.25	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-12
   soldstatus $80,000
2. 2025-11-17
   historical Under Contract
3. 2025-10-17
   price $79,900
4. 2025-10-01
   price $85,000
5. 2025-09-30
   listed $85,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,523 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $3,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 26,768
• Household income: $62,973
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.42%
• Current HPI: 296.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-17 Contingent — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $79,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $85,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-30 Listed $85,500 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,233 · -29.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.