319 Tower Rd · Cobleskill, NY 12187

$299,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2009 6.80 ac lot $198/sqft · 27% below area Est $412k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a country road, this home sits on 6.8 acres. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is surrounded by woods and a lovely backyard. The back deck overlooks the pond. Property borders State Land and is across from protected wetlands. An old barn on the property is ''as-is'' with the sale. This home is just 10 minutes from Cobleskill.

Key facts

• Pond
• Old barn
• Protected wetlands

Tags

• PROTECTED WETLANDS
• POND
• OLD BARN
• 10 MINUTES FROM COBLESKILL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Stone and paved driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area approximately 1,512
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Barn(s); Road frontage; Sloped lot; Wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Bamboo; Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Office; Living room; Dining area
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Cobleskill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobleskill-Richmondville Central School District (town): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $300k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $221,554 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,517
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -27.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $146,527
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $444,707
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12187

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,797/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $253,292

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Tucked away on a country road, this home sits on 6.8 acres. The 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is surrounded by woods and a lovely backyard. The back deck overlooks the pond. Property borders State Land and is across from protected wetlands. An old barn on the property is ''as-is'' with the sale. This home is just 10 minutes from Cobleskill.

12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $299,900 Active 313-char remark
16. 2002-09-04
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,797 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,433 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$635/yr (+$53/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥87°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,797
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobleskill-Richmondville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600010
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,555
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2734
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cobleskill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #16581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 739

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Hungarian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.73%
• Current HPI: 327.7722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+334.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2002-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,797 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.