4138 Old Lincolnton Rd · Appling, GA 30802

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Other public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and lakeside living in this beautifully renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, situated on a spacious 1.28-acre lot in Appling, GA. Just minutes from the serene shores of Lake Thurmond, this property is ideal for family gatherings and outdoor adventures. The home has undergone significant upgrades, including a new roof, HVAC system with updated ductwork, and fully fenced yard, ensuring both comfort and privacy. Step inside to find fresh paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Each oversized bedroom offers ample space for relaxation, while two versatile living areas provide options for cozy evenings by the fireplace o

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Lakeside living
• Spacious lot

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• FRESH PAINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel/unpaved parking; no garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Other utilities (see remarks)
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1; Facing: see remarks
• Construction: Metal siding with frame construction; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Storm door(s); Full fenced yard; Other exterior features; Storage structure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Wood heating with fireplace and fireplace insert; Electric heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.1% in Appling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#457 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Columbia Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #79 of 1,228 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 22% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 981 students, 39% FRL); Harlem High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,223 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $215k implies a 2288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,408 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $116,775
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $344,171
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30802

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $214,234

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $214,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$3,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$887
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Appling

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #21719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,375

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 339.0061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2287.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $214,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $188,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $188,900 Hive MLS
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2015): $1 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.