5566 Bonnie Spring Valley Dr · Stover, MO 65078

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1963 11 ac lot $111/sqft · 28% below area Est $203k · 14% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Trade the subdivision for the sound of silence at this 11± acre wooded "basecamp" in Stover. The heart of the home is a true stacked-log cabin—providing a rugged, authentic Ozark character you simply cannot recreate—now expanded into a functional 1,300+ sq ft, 2-bed, 1-bath residence. Best of all? You can work from the woods with high-speed internet available. Surrounded by heavy timber on three sides, this property is a outdoorsman's dream. The detached 2-car garage is ready for ATVs and lake toys, while the terrain features a natural backstop area perfect for a private shooting range or target practice. With frequent deer and turkey sightings, you can hunt or wildlife-watch directly from your covered concrete patio. Enjoy unmatched seclusion just minutes from the marina and lakefront amenities. Equipped with a new metal roof (2025), this property is built for the buyer who wants a tactical weekend getaway or a primary residence with zero neighbors in sight. Bring your tools and a little sweat equity to finish out this standout Ozark classic.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• High-speed internet
• 11 acre lot

Tags

• HIGH-SPEED INTERNET
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• NATURAL BACKSTOP AREA
• PRIVATE SHOOTING RANGE
• COVERED CONCRETE PATIO
• NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#473 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morgan Co. R-I Elem. (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 410 students, 99% FRL); Morgan Co. R-I High (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 420 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $107,395 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,390
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -13.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $46,777
• Equity at exit: $119,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $145,619
• Equity at exit: $226,431

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65078

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $139,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-154	+0% $-203	+5% $-253	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-245	+0% $-203	+5% $-161	+10% $-118
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-159	base $-203	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $175,000 Active 1089-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

    Trade the subdivision for the sound of silence at this 11± acre wooded "basecamp" in Stover. The heart of the home is a true stacked-log cabin—providing a rugged, authentic Ozark character you simply cannot recreate—now expanded into a functional 1,300+ sq ft, 2-bed, 1-bath residence. Best of all? You can work from the woods with high-speed internet available. Surrounded by heavy timber on three sides, this property is a outdoorsman's dream. The detached 2-car garage is ready for ATVs and lake toys, while the terrain features a natural backstop area perfect for a private shooting range or target practice. With frequent deer and turkey sightings, you can hunt or wildlife-watch directly from your covered concrete patio. Enjoy unmatched seclusion just minutes from the marina and lakefront amenities. Equipped with a new metal roof (2025), this property is built for the buyer who wants a tactical weekend getaway or a primary residence with zero neighbors in sight. Bring your tools and a little sweat equity to finish out this standout Ozark classic.

18. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus
19. 2019-12-02
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 132.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,031
• − Management: −$1,031
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,188
• Composite: 32.47/100
• National rank: #5714
• State rank: #173 of 324 in MO

Livability — Stover

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #18738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,716

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,779 people
• By 2030: 17,891 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 16,227 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 14,735 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 11,433 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 7,717 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.7) · D 19.7% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -59.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.7 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+34.1 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Current HPI: 164.4454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+192.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $175,000 LOBR
• 2020-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-02 Listed $59,900 LOBR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $730 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.