207 S Hafford Rd · Rector, AR 72461

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

0.53 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Garage

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot (approximately 0.53 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#120 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Rector School District (rural): math 35% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #149 of 238 in AR (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rector Elementary School (math 42% / reading 22%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 368 students, 75% FRL); Rector High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #142 of 292 statewide, top 53%, 248 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $923 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $750 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.82%
• DSCR: 6.20
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 N Ballard St	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,441 (+0%)	13mo	$92,500	$64	78
214 N Ballard	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,562 (+8%)	1mo	$120,000	$77	69
121 W 5th St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,382 (-4%)	4mo	$72,500	$52	67
118 W 5th	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+5%)	1mo	$140,000	$92	66
810 E 8th St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+3%)	8mo	$98,000	$66	63
1021 S Stewart St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-4%)	2mo	$125,000	$91	58
610 W 3rd St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,343 (-7%)	1mo	$105,000	$78	56
115 E 2nd St #1	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-14%)	5mo	$99,000	$80	54
207 S Main St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+12%)	9mo	$116,000	$72	53
1102 S Stewart St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,359 (-6%)	4mo	$27,000	$20	51
317 S Plain St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (+3%)	12mo	$112,900	$76	47
521 W 6th St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	14mo	$120,000	$75	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $46,436
• Equity at exit: $11,241

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.93×
• Total profit: $104,515
• Equity at exit: $17,324

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72461

• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $230

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $25,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $8,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $6,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rector School District
• NCES district ID: 0504370
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,504
• Composite: 25.78/100
• National rank: #7366
• State rank: #149 of 238 in AR

Livability — Rector

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #11481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rector, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,684

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,564 people
• By 2030: 12,834 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 11,498 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 10,325 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 8,228 · -39.3%
• By 2100: 6,675 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.3% · R 79.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.3pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+60.3 2016: R+29.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $25,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2014-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.