3301 S Goldfield Rd #3045 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$239,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · Manufactured · 147 Days on market

Built 2003 4,824 sqft lot Est $167k · 44% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASITA OR 2-MASTER-SUITES. This FURNISHED, stucco home offers exceptional utility savings. This beautiful, move-in-ready 3 bedroom/3 bath w/ den maintained home offers, expansive living area that flows seamlessly into an expansive tiled Arizona room creating the ultimate indoor-outdoor living experience. The Arizona room offers a protected, breezy space for relaxing, while leaving plenty of room in the yard for grilling and activities. Upgrades include, new A/C, fresh interior and exterior paint, Pergo flooring, ceiling fans and much more The home is located conveniently closed to the luxurious clubhouse for an extended home away from home. Dolce Vita, a sought-out 55+ community nestled clo

Key facts

• Private casita
• Screened-in porch
• Security screens

Tags

• PRIVATE CASITA
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• EXTRA INTERIOR STORAGE
• SECURITY SCREENS
• STUNNING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ZERO-ENTRY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size (owner): 4,824 sq ft
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Land lease community — monthly land lease fee; Association covers sewer and other items; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Private sewer
• Home design: Leasehold property; Manufactured/mobile home
• Construction: Spray foam insulation; Stucco exterior; Wood frame construction; Ducts professionally air-sealed; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Above-ground heated spa; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic timer irrigation in front and back; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Pantry; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Central air
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Two master bathrooms; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($326/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,786
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1015	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,874 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$75	93
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4028	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (+1%)	1mo	$157,500	$83	85
3301 S Goldfield Rd #3038	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (+2%)	1mo	$171,000	$89	81
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2015	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,795 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$81	78
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4018	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-5%)	2mo	$227,500	$128	75
3301 S Goldfield Rd #6014	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (-7%)	3mo	$220,000	$126	74
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1046	0.11mi	3/3.0	2,000 (+7%)	11mo	$220,000	$110	74
3301 S Goldfield Rd #6031	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-14%)	4mo	$215,000	$134	69
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2102	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$120,000	$70	69
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2095	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-13%)	2mo	$129,900	$80	68
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2056	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	2mo	$177,500	$106	67
2400 E Baseline Ave #129	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-4%)	9mo	$118,000	$66	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-40,136
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,654
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	24d	1	0.11mi
2369 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1892	$2,100	$1.11	5d	1	0.71mi
2491 S Siphon Peak Rd Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	1948	$3,278	$1.68	24d	1	0.71mi
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	24d	1	0.72mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	24d	1	0.73mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	24d	1	0.75mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	24d	1	0.76mi
2217 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2260	$2,010	$0.89	13d	1	0.81mi
2213 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2332	$2,385	$1.02	3d	1	0.82mi
2191 E Greenlee Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	2184	$2,275	$1.04	3d	1	0.89mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	4d	1	0.90mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.93mi
2653 S Powell Rd Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,945	$1.25	5d	1	1.05mi
1807 E 36th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2261	$3,175	$1.40	24d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    price $239,900
15. 2026-02-11
    price $259,900
16. 2026-01-20
    listed $289,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $1,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $239,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $259,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $289,000 ARMLS