1214 Jones Rd · Stewartsville, VA 24179

$180,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 0.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Buy on this brick Ranch with large screened-in porch. Attached garage. 4th Bedroom located on lower level along with 2nd bathroom. The home is being sold ''as is''. The buyer is responsible for doing their own due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Stewartsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewartsville Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 87% FRL); Staunton River Middle (math 45% / reading 65%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 627 students, 86% FRL); Staunton River High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 889 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $180k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,361 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $700,416
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1834 Gravel Hill Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+3%)	1mo	$172,500	$138	61
181 Dixon Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+7%)	20mo	$749,000	$576	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,311
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,271
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24179

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $180,000 Active
3. 2017-09-29
   soldstatus $58,000 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Great Buy on this brick Ranch with large screened-in porch. Attached garage. 4th Bedroom located on lower level along with 2nd bathroom. The home is being sold ''as is''. The buyer is responsible for doing their own due diligence.

4. 2017-09-13
   listed $55,800 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Great Buy on this brick Ranch with large screened-in porch. Attached garage. 4th Bedroom located on lower level along with 2nd bathroom. The home is being sold ''as is''. The buyer is responsible for doing their own due diligence.

5. 2003-07-22
   soldstatus $84,500 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   NICE BRICK RANCH FOR THE MONEY, GREAT HARDY RD. LOCATION, SHARED WELL, ROAD MAINTENANCE AGREEMENT, FOURTH BR IS NOW LAUNDRY

6. 2003-01-10
   listed $89,950 123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (123 chars)

   NICE BRICK RANCH FOR THE MONEY, GREAT HARDY RD. LOCATION, SHARED WELL, ROAD MAINTENANCE AGREEMENT, FOURTH BR IS NOW LAUNDRY

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$938/yr (+$78/mo · 174.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stewartsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,834

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.89%
• Current HPI: 186.9964
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-22 Listed $180,000 MLSRV
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) $58,000 MLSRV
• 2017-09-13 Listed $55,800 MLSRV
• 2003-07-22 Sold (MLS) $84,500 MLSRV
• 2003-01-10 Listed $89,950 MLSRV

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $538 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.