216 Cooke Ln · Mineral, VA 23024

$454,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2015 0.92 ac lot $278/sqft · 27% below area $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-831 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (47.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Jouett Elementary (math 71% / reading 74%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 621 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,950 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $962,403
• List price: $454,900
• Delta: -52.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Cooke Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,561 (-5%)	4mo	$449,900	$288	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-107,401
• Equity at exit: $88,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-145,255
• Equity at exit: $75,867

Cash invested: $127,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23024

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,379/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,422

Max offer price $308,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-574	-5% $-702	+0% $-831	+5% $-960	+10% $-1,089
Rent	-10% $-1,018	-5% $-925	+0% $-831	+5% $-737	+10% $-644
Rate	-1.0pp $-602	-0.5pp $-715	base $-831	+0.5pp $-949	+1.0pp $-1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,725
• Closing costs: $13,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $454,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $454,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $454,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $454,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $454,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $454,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $454,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $454,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $454,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $454,900 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

17. 2026-05-16
    price $454,900 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $459,900 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

19. 2026-04-01
    listed $459,900 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

20. 2026-03-26
    historical $459,900 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Cozy raised ranch with assigned BOATSLIP featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, where comfort meets versatility. Open living, dining, and kitchen area (with high ceilings) is perfect for entertaining, highlighted by gleaming oak hardwood floors and a cozy wood stove. The primary suite on the main level boasts a walk-in closet and walk-in shower. The walk-out basement offers endless possibilities—recreation room, additional bedroom, full bath, and workshop—with easy potential for a mother-in-law suite or efficiency apartment. Outside, enjoy a large barn ready for your boat or camper, plus a shed for all your lawn essentials. With an assigned boat slip and direct access to the community common area, waterfront fun is just steps away. Relax on the front porch or the rear deck. Rear deck has a ramp for easy accessibility. All appliances convey and are two years old. Rear yard has fire pit. All rooms are oak hardwood except bedroom in basement. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile, water-friendly property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,730 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,351/yr (+$196/mo · 170.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,379
• − Insurance: −$2,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$13,233
• Taxable loss: −$18,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,474
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mineral

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,770

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.99%
• Current HPI: 351.4933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $454,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $454,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $459,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $459,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $459,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,379 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.