72 Oak Cir · The Hideout, PA 18436

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1979 0.38 ac lot $231/sqft · 38% above area Est $272k · 9% under $189/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming chalet-style home nestled in the heart of the Poconos! This inviting retreat features a bright open floor plan with rustic character and thoughtful updates throughout, creating the perfect blend of cozy and modern. Located on desirable Oak Circle, enjoy a prime setting just a short distance to the main beach, main pool, ski hill, and tiki bar--putting year-round fun right at your fingertips. Situated in the amenity-filled, gated recreational community of The Hideout, offering lakes, pools, beaches, golf course, ski hill, bar, restaurant, fitness center, and tiki bar. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity, this home checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Thoughtful updates
• Prime setting

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RUSTIC CHARACTER
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• PRIME SETTING
• AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY
• GATED RECREATIONAL COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in The Hideout — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#668 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $249k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.65%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,433
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -8.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Oak Court Ct	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	7mo	$257,000	$225	80
12 Oak Ct	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	7mo	$257,000	$225	80
265 Parkwood Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+4%)	0mo	$289,990	$259	77
126 Oak Cir	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	8mo	$260,000	$217	63
11 Oak Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	19mo	$235,000	$200	62
80 Lakewood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-3%)	12mo	$255,000	$243	58
28 Lakewood Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+2%)	6mo	$162,500	$148	57
210 Deerfield Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+2%)	7mo	$239,000	$217	57
10 Vista Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,205 (+12%)	6mo	$241,700	$201	56
41 Underwood Ln	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,172 (+8%)	20mo	$170,000	$145	40
803 Deerfield Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	9mo	$445,000	$371	36
165 Greenview Ct	0.69mi	3/1.0	988 (-8%)	22mo	$169,600	$172	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $167,697
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $468,846
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$189
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $573	+0% $502	+5% $432	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $388	+0% $502	+5% $617	+10% $732
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $566	base $502	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1148 Golf Park Dr Lake Ariel, PA	3.0	1.0	1210	$2,900	$2.40	26d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $189 · $2,268/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $249,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-04-09
   listed $260,000 Active 707-char remark

   Show marketing remark (707 chars)

   Charming chalet-style home nestled in the heart of the Poconos! This inviting retreat features a bright open floor plan with rustic character and thoughtful updates throughout, creating the perfect blend of cozy and modern. Located on desirable Oak Circle, enjoy a prime setting just a short distance to the main beach, main pool, ski hill, and tiki bar--putting year-round fun right at your fingertips. Situated in the amenity-filled, gated recreational community of The Hideout, offering lakes, pools, beaches, golf course, ski hill, bar, restaurant, fitness center, and tiki bar. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity, this home checks all the boxes!

7. 2020-10-26
   soldstatus $149,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,107 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − HOA: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $2,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — The Hideout

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #668
• US rank: #6516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+73.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $260,000 PWMLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,280 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.