252 9th St #502 · San Francisco, CA 94103

$499,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 731 sqft · Condo public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2015 $622/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live luxuriously in this spacious 1-bed, 1-bath penthouse condo at 252 9th St, Unit #502, in the exclusive Sapphire building. Featuring a modern kitchen with Bertazzoni gas range and quartz countertops, hardwood floors, in-unit washer/dryer, and a chic bathroom. Enjoy a rooftop deck, bike storage, and easy Bay Area access. Steps from SoMa's vibrant restaurants, theaters, and tech/AI hub, with no deeded parking.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Chic bathroom
• Bertazzoni gas range

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• BERTAZZONI GAS RANGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• IN-UNIT WASHER DRYER
• CHIC BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $455k (9.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $455k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,017/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 2666% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $454,634 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $124,890
• Equity at exit: $282,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $456,915
• Equity at exit: $486,011

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94103

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$768 /mo · $9,215/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$622
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,054
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,341

Max offer price $454,634

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1288 Howard St #1908 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$6,710	$8.58	2d	2	0.12mi
1288 Howard St #604 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	431	$3,400	$7.89	44d	1	0.14mi
1222 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	853	$6,299	$7.38	2d	34	0.15mi
99 Rausch St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	655	$4,250	$6.49	24d	1	0.22mi
1532 Harrison St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	617	$4,897	$7.94	2d	11	0.25mi
1190 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	508	$3,136	$6.17	2d	5	0.27mi
55 9th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$5,580	$6.48	2d	1	0.27mi
1188 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	448	$3,269	$7.29	2d	17	0.29mi
603 Natoma St Apt 406 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	556	$2,950	$5.31	44d	1	0.30mi
33 8th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	646	$6,624	$10.25	2d	10	0.31mi
8 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$8,495	$9.24	2d	28	0.34mi
975 Bryant St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$6,104	$8.76	2d	10	0.34mi
1390 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,067	$7.25	2d	14	0.37mi
1 Polk St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	773	$4,644	$6.00	2d	4	0.39mi
30 Otis St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$10,000	$11.44	2d	13	0.40mi
84 Harriet St Unit A San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	718	$3,295	$4.59	20d	1	0.41mi
101 Polk St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	573	$4,614	$8.04	2d	7	0.43mi
100 Van Ness Ave #1477 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$7,990	$8.94	2d	2	0.43mi
855 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$6,137	$6.41	2d	5	0.44mi
150 Van Ness Ave #1475 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	615	$5,510	$8.96	20d	1	0.45mi
1075 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	546	$3,500	$6.40	24d	2	0.46mi
1075 Market St #461 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	648	$3,460	$5.34	20d	1	0.47mi
1 Brady St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$7,385	$8.30	2d	29	0.47mi
50 Jones St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	471	$3,397	$7.21	3d	9	0.54mi
225 Fell St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	512	$4,495	$8.77	7d	3	0.54mi
1028 Market St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	526	$5,121	$9.73	1d	6	0.54mi
1 Henry Adams St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	873	$6,759	$7.74	2d	3	0.55mi
1699 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,817	$8.59	2d	5	0.56mi
68 McCoppin St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	734	$3,825	$5.21	17d	2	0.56mi
1801 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	446	$10,000	$22.42	44d	1	0.59mi
434 Minna St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$6,581	$9.15	2d	15	0.59mi
900 Folsom St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$6,186	$7.17	2d	24	0.60mi
285 Turk St Apt 507 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	462	$1,795	$3.89	44d	1	0.61mi
400 Clementina St #1449 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$5,210	$6.72	2d	2	0.62mi
960 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	613	$4,295	$7.01	22d	1	0.64mi
291 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$2,695	$4.90	24d	1	0.64mi
673 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.0	1302	$4,659	$3.58	2d	2	0.65mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$5,614	$7.08	3d	5	0.67mi
325 Octavia St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$7,583	$9.35	2d	1	0.69mi
270 Valencia St #205 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,800	$7.60	44d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $622 · $7,464/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Live luxuriously in this spacious 1-bed, 1-bath penthouse condo at 252 9th St, Unit #502, in the exclusive Sapphire building. Featuring a modern kitchen with Bertazzoni gas range and quartz countertops, hardwood floors, in-unit washer/dryer, and a chic bathroom. Enjoy a rooftop deck, bike storage, and easy Bay Area access. Steps from SoMa's vibrant restaurants, theaters, and tech/AI hub, with no deeded parking.

2. 2026-03-20
   listed $499,900 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   Live luxuriously in this spacious 1-bed, 1-bath penthouse condo at 252 9th St, Unit #502, in the exclusive Sapphire building. Featuring a modern kitchen with Bertazzoni gas range and quartz countertops, hardwood floors, in-unit washer/dryer, and a chic bathroom. Enjoy a rooftop deck, bike storage, and easy Bay Area access. Steps from SoMa's vibrant restaurants, theaters, and tech/AI hub, with no deeded parking.

3. 2025-11-07
   price $499,900
4. 2025-11-04
   listed $500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,215 · $768/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,215 · $768/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$9,215
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,816
• − Management: −$4,816
• − HOA: −$7,464
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$11,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,964
• Household income: $116,438
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2666.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 175.4945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.50%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $499,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $499,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $500,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,215 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.