201 w Oakview #51 · Centralia, WA 98531

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2002 ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hunters Walk, an all-ages manufactured home park offering convenience and a peaceful setting. Situated on a desirable corner lot with no home directly behind, this well-designed home overlooks a seasonal settlement pond, adding to the quiet country feel. Fresh exterior paint and a brand-new roof give the home excellent curb appeal along with the peace of mind of major exterior maintenance already being completed. The ADA ramp to the back door provides added accessibility and convenience or could be removed for additional yard space if desired. Inside, you’ll find a functional split-bedroom floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, offering privacy for the primary suite.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Bar seating
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• BAR SEATING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated building area 1,344 square feet
• Financial info: Cash-only listing
• HOA & community: Located in Hunters Walk manufactured home park (park approved for sale); 112 homes in the park; Park amenities include high-speed internet availability, playground, and sidewalks; Land lease: $830

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; City power (City of Centralia); Electric energy source; Cable connected (Xfinity); Internet connected (Xfinity)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Redman make; Good condition; Mobile home remains on site; Block skirting
• Construction: Cement and wood construction materials; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation with tie downs; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Cement/concrete and wood exterior; Wood products; Corner lot; Cul-de-sac; Curbs and paved streets; Sidewalks; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 bathtubs, 2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Forced air cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Accessible approach with ramp; Vaulted ceilings; Bath off primary; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oakview Elementary School (356 students, 92% FRL); Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 65% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,575
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $31,366
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1207 Windsor Ave Centralia, WA	3.0	1.0	1041	$2,100	$2.02	43d	1	1.12mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	43d	1	1.27mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	43d	1	1.47mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $109,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2023-11-29
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
20. 2023-10-17
    status Pending
21. 2023-09-12
    price $99,997
22. 2023-07-07
    listed $129,997 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$3/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $99,997 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-07 Listed $129,997 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,035 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.