23 Aldrich Pl · Buffalo, NY 14220

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 7,680 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location! Opportunity for owner occupy or investor. This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath bungalow conveniently located close to Botanical Gardens, South Park Lake, restaurants and plenty of shopping opportunities. This house is waiting for a new owner to bring it back to life many possibilities.

Key facts

• 7,680 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $109k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.84%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Cantwell Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,275 (-9%)	0mo	$210,000	$165	66
95 Aldrich Pl	0.14mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	1mo	$270,000	$172	65
34 Downing St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,540 (+10%)	8mo	$250,000	$162	62
98 Ridgewood Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,432 (+3%)	5mo	$295,000	$206	61
114 Whitehall Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+1%)	5mo	$300,000	$212	58
66 Woodside Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-2%)	3mo	$250,000	$183	58
78 High Vw	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,316 (-6%)	6mo	$145,000	$110	54
289 Okell St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (+12%)	5mo	$232,500	$149	52
338 Downing St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (-9%)	5mo	$265,000	$209	43
105 Sheffield Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (-13%)	0mo	$215,000	$177	36
17 S Shore Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,584 (+14%)	4mo	$260,000	$164	34
60 Woodside Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	7mo	$164,900	$105	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,249
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $62,467
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $851

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	23d	1	0.27mi
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	1d	1	0.65mi
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	1d	1	1.14mi
111 Southside Pkwy Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.30mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	10d	1	1.42mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $109,000 Active
3. 2011-11-10
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 89.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $2,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $3,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $109,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.