5057 Lake Shore Rd · Wanakah, NY 14075

$59,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1930 0.28 ac lot $51/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful small building lot with partial view of Lake Erie and riparian rights to private beach accessed by Beach Drive. Steps from Wanakah Country Club, 15 minutes to downtown Buffalo. This lot comes with access to Wanakah and Town of Hamburg beaches, public water and sewer available. Perfect lot to build your dream home. One of last buildable lots on this stretch of Lake Shore Road. Seller will provide previous approved custom building plan for this lot. Owner financing available.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 151 days

Tags

• PARTIAL VIEW OF LAKE ERIE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $411 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $60k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.44%
• DSCR: 4.18
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,329
• List price: $59,500
• Delta: -79.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2691 Riverton Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+3%)	6mo	$230,000	$192	68
2650 Greenfield Ave	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-1%)	14mo	$195,000	$169	68
5119 Glendale Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-6%)	4mo	$190,000	$175	64
5063 Lake Shore Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+9%)	23mo	$318,500	$252	61
2680 Riverton Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-1%)	22mo	$167,000	$145	56
5148 Briercliff Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,149 (-1%)	0mo	$325,000	$283	56
5104 Morgan Pkwy	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-1%)	10mo	$210,000	$183	55
2656 Oakwood Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-10%)	10mo	$225,000	$216	53
2662 Oakwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-8%)	20mo	$200,000	$188	52
2636 Hawthorne Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+14%)	17mo	$240,000	$182	45
2779 Cloverbank Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (-11%)	7mo	$180,000	$175	44
5559 Stilwell Rd	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$160	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $57,585
• Equity at exit: $8,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.94×
• Total profit: $148,909
• Equity at exit: $5,144

Cash invested: $16,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$312
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $886/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $59,500

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,025	-5% $1,009	+0% $992	+5% $975	+10% $958
Rent	-10% $852	-5% $922	+0% $992	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,132
Rate	-1.0pp $1,022	-0.5pp $1,007	base $992	+0.5pp $976	+1.0pp $961

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,875
• Closing costs: $1,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,500 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,500 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,500 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-03-23
   price $59,500 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Beautiful small building lot with partial view of Lake Erie and riparian rights to private beach accessed by Beach Drive. Steps from Wanakah Country Club, 15 minutes to downtown Buffalo. This lot comes with access to Wanakah and Town of Hamburg beaches, public water and sewer available. Perfect lot to build your dream home. One of last buildable lots on this stretch of Lake Shore Road. Seller will provide previous approved custom building plan for this lot. Owner financing available.

5. 2026-01-02
   listed $69,900 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   Beautiful small building lot with partial view of Lake Erie and riparian rights to private beach accessed by Beach Drive. Steps from Wanakah Country Club, 15 minutes to downtown Buffalo. This lot comes with access to Wanakah and Town of Hamburg beaches, public water and sewer available. Perfect lot to build your dream home. One of last buildable lots on this stretch of Lake Shore Road. Seller will provide previous approved custom building plan for this lot. Owner financing available.

6. 2025-09-14
   historical
7. 2025-03-06
   price $79,000
8. 2024-09-13
   listed $89,900 Active
9. 2023-09-30
   historical
10. 2023-07-31
    price $99,900
11. 2023-06-30
    listed $119,900 Active
12. 2016-08-05
    soldstatus $24,000 Closed Sale or Rented
13. 2016-06-15
    status Pending Sale
14. 2016-04-29
    listed $29,900 Active
15. 2015-11-10
    historical
16. 2014-02-05
    listed $29,900
17. 2013-06-11
    soldstatus $23,000
18. 2013-04-08
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,333
• − Property taxes: −$886
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$1,731
• Taxable income: $11,647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $9,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wanakah, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $59,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-14 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $79,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-31 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-05 Sold (MLS) $24,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-06-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-04-29 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2014-02-05 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-06-11 Sold (MLS) $23,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-04-08 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $886 · -23.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.