2721 Dogwood Cir · Valdosta, GA 31602

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1966 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this affordable 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on nearly half an acre in a convenient Valdosta location. The functional floor plan makes the most of the space, while the large lot provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors, entertain, or simply spread out. Mature trees offer shade and character, and the covered front porch adds a welcoming touch. Located just minutes from Valdosta High School and Scintilla Charter, shopping, restaurants, and everyday conveniences, this property offers an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a budget-friendly home with a larger yard. Homes with four bedrooms at this price point are hard to find-schedule

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large lot
• Convenient location

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.47 acre; Zoning: R-6

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Cement siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.21%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,187
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $50,065
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31602

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $467	+0% $431	+5% $394	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $370	+0% $431	+5% $491	+10% $552
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $464	base $431	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Houston Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,375	$1.26	22d	1	0.73mi
2814 Kirkwood Cir Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,500	$1.08	22d	1	0.76mi
2816 Kirkwood Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,450	$1.24	22d	1	0.77mi
1778 Almond Tree Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,300	$0.97	44d	1	0.86mi
1730 Forsyth Pl Unit B Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	1280	$1,395	$1.09	44d	1	1.07mi
1717 Largo Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,495	$1.24	44d	1	1.10mi
3120 Tyndall Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.20mi
4125 Sedgwyck Ln Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,350	$1.09	44d	1	1.27mi
4 Lakeland Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,250	$0.93	22d	1	1.29mi
4220 Wilshire Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,400	$1.16	22d	1	1.29mi
1632 Lexington Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,395	$1.26	44d	1	1.42mi
2600 Deborah Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1333	$1,495	$1.12	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $129,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-29
    listed $129,900 Active
20. 2020-02-21
    soldstatus $170,000
21. 2003-01-07
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2001-03-02
    soldstatus $56,000
23. 2000-10-04
    soldstatus $49,000
24. 1997-03-13
    soldstatus $42,000
25. 1996-06-03
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 114.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$770
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 35,728
• Household income: $56,939
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2034.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.60%
• Current HPI: 188.2012
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+419.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $129,900 SGMLS
• 2020-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.