18202 N Cave Creek Rd #206 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$115,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · Condo public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1983 $189/sqft · 44% below area Est $206k · 44% under $375/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 bed / 1 bath condo. Great investment property for investors. Close to 101/FRWY AND SR 51. Minutes from Desert ridge Market Place. This complex offers amenities like a pool, Lush Landscaping, Close to shopping and dining. Tenant in place. Current rent $1050/mo. with room to raise rent. month to month lease.

Key facts

• Investment property
• Close to dining
• Pool

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• POOL
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• CLOSE TO 101

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $115,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$205,762) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (21.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,800 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,762
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -44.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-33,170
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -76.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-56,426
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $89,800

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$795	$1.10	4d	7	0.04mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$1,975	$2.51	4d	9	0.11mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	8d	1	0.16mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,290	$1.34	2d	11	0.29mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.32mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,312	$2.02	2d	13	0.39mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,354	$1.36	2d	22	0.97mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	8d	1	1.02mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$999	$1.43	24d	1	1.02mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,912	$2.08	2d	16	1.09mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,385	$1.52	1d	10	1.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.13mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	1.13mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$856	$1.49	4d	6	1.13mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	1.14mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	1.14mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	22d	1	1.14mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	1.14mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,027	$1.07	2d	93	1.27mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,424	$1.67	3d	62	1.27mi
16645 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	483	$1,297	$2.68	2d	6	1.34mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$849	$1.23	2d	4	1.40mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	5d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $115,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    1 bed / 1 bath condo. Great investment property for investors. Close to 101/FRWY AND SR 51. Minutes from Desert ridge Market Place. This complex offers amenities like a pool, Lush Landscaping, Close to shopping and dining. Tenant in place. Current rent $1050/mo. with room to raise rent. month to month lease.

16. 2021-06-22
    soldstatus $105,000
17. 2021-03-11
    listed Under Contract Accepting Backups
18. 2021-03-08
    listed $105,000
19. 2018-01-12
    soldstatus $35,000
20. 2017-03-07
    historical
21. 2017-02-10
    listed $34,900 Active
22. 2016-08-26
    historical
23. 2016-03-04
    listed $39,900 Active
24. 2006-10-30
    soldstatus $1,500,000
25. 2002-11-01
    soldstatus $4,769,000
26. 1993-05-27
    soldstatus $4,912,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$932
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-11 Listed — ARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $105,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-02-10 Listed $34,900 ARMLS
• 2016-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-03-04 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2006-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,500,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,769,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $4,912,750 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.