14851 Jeffrey Rd #246 · Irvine, CA 92618

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 240 Days on market

Built 2001 $178/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture this -- It's your New Home! 2001 Fleetwood Lake Springs Lovely two bedrooms, two bathroom home featuring a living room, dining area, great kitchen and utility room. Outside you will a nice porch, storage shed, air conditioning and extended carport awning supports. * Seller offers a “Buyer incentive of one month free space rent. * S/N CALFL108A/B25527LS12

Key facts

• Great kitchen
• Utility room
• Porch

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• GREAT KITCHEN
• UTILITY ROOM
• PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.32%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,702
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -7.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14851 Jeffrey Rd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,101 (-2%)	8mo	$260,000	$236	91
14851 Jeffrey Rd #226	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	20mo	$279,000	$249	83
14851 Jeffrey Rd #16	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	13mo	$188,500	$151	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $86,955
• Equity at exit: $64,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $212,374
• Equity at exit: $82,618

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $1,408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,280	$3.04	43d	1	0.27mi
4 Austin Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,950	$3.67	2d	5	0.30mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,400	$3.62	4d	1	0.31mi
51 Golden Glen St #1 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1048	$3,700	$3.53	7d	1	0.32mi
31 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,250	$3.10	11d	1	0.35mi
5151 Walnut Ave #29 Irvine, CA	2.0	3.0	1142	$3,400	$2.98	43d	1	0.43mi
11 Eccelstone Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,795	$3.24	24d	1	0.50mi
15431 Lorraine Way Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	0.52mi
8 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$3,100	$3.07	7d	1	0.53mi
1300 Hayes St Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$3,122	$3.26	2d	23	0.59mi
43 Alderwood #69 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1220	$3,700	$3.03	20d	1	0.62mi
26 Elderglen Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$4,150	$3.76	20d	1	0.64mi
78 Rose Arch #21 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,950	$3.04	43d	1	0.72mi
63 Wildwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,850	$3.07	43d	1	0.72mi
19 Wildwood #6 Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	3d	1	0.75mi
145 Huntington Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,900	$3.19	43d	1	0.76mi
317 Huntington Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	13d	1	0.77mi
30 Dragonfly Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,800	$3.56	24d	1	0.77mi
49 E Yale Loop #26 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$4,300	$2.92	24d	1	0.79mi
365 Huntington #189 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,750	$3.06	43d	1	0.79mi
4 Van Buren #313 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	903	$3,300	$3.65	12d	1	0.82mi
29 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,950	$3.18	7d	1	0.82mi
16 Brookmont #85 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	19d	1	0.87mi
30 Sunfish #44 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$4,000	$4.04	3d	1	0.88mi
8 Hollowglen Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$3,345	$3.23	43d	1	0.88mi
13 Brookmont #60 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1230	$4,300	$3.50	7d	1	0.90mi
21 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,200	$3.36	19d	1	0.90mi
194 Rose Arch Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$4,000	$2.78	7d	1	0.94mi
44 Briarwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$3,100	$2.99	43d	1	0.95mi
225 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	2d	1	0.97mi
102 Tangerine Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$4,150	$2.87	13d	1	0.98mi
269 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$2,650	$2.79	11d	1	1.00mi
285 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,200	$3.36	43d	1	1.00mi
263 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,300	$3.30	43d	1	1.00mi
100 Grand Canal Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	901	$4,440	$4.93	2d	107	1.01mi
50 Eastshore Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	816	$3,365	$4.12	2d	34	1.02mi
224 Orange Blossom Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	868	$2,900	$3.34	24d	1	1.06mi
381 Orange Blossom Irvine, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,625	$3.50	43d	1	1.06mi
382 Orange Blossom Irvine, CA	1.0	1.0	717	$2,395	$3.34	10d	1	1.06mi
461 Orange Blossom Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$3,100	$3.44	13d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 411-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   price $199,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $205,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Picture this -- It's your New Home! 2001 Fleetwood Lake Springs Lovely two bedrooms, two bathroom home featuring a living room, dining area, great kitchen and utility room. Outside you will a nice porch, storage shed, air conditioning and extended carport awning supports. * Seller offers a “Buyer incentive of one month free space rent. * S/N CALFL108A/B25527LS12

18. 2026-02-27
    price $215,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Picture this -- It's your New Home! 2001 Fleetwood Lake Springs Lovely two bedrooms, two bathroom home featuring a living room, dining area, great kitchen and utility room. Outside you will a nice porch, storage shed, air conditioning and extended carport awning supports. * Seller offers a “Buyer incentive of one month free space rent. * S/N CALFL108A/B25527LS12

19. 2025-12-11
    price $225,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Picture this -- It's your New Home! 2001 Fleetwood Lake Springs Lovely two bedrooms, two bathroom home featuring a living room, dining area, great kitchen and utility room. Outside you will a nice porch, storage shed, air conditioning and extended carport awning supports. * Seller offers a “Buyer incentive of one month free space rent. * S/N CALFL108A/B25527LS12

20. 2025-10-21
    listed $230,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Picture this -- It's your New Home! 2001 Fleetwood Lake Springs Lovely two bedrooms, two bathroom home featuring a living room, dining area, great kitchen and utility room. Outside you will a nice porch, storage shed, air conditioning and extended carport awning supports. * Seller offers a “Buyer incentive of one month free space rent. * S/N CALFL108A/B25527LS12

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,382
• − Management: −$3,382
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $14,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,502
• After-tax cash flow: $13,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4078.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $230,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $234 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.