28454 SE 168th Ave #7 · Lake Morton-Berrydale, WA 98042

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $230k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home located 5 minutes from Costco, downtown Covington and highway 18. There are 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and a bonus room that could be a 4th bedroom or an office. The entrance has a large living room area, dining room and kitchen that is open. The main bedroom has its own bathroom and privacy from the other rooms. Outside you have 2 sheds for storage and a large deck to enjoy barbeques or just sit around. There are 3 parking spaces and community parking for guests. This is a great community, well maintained. It is move in ready for you.

Key facts

• Large deck
• 2 sheds for storage
• Open kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• 2 SHEDS FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated building area: 1400 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease: $787; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Pleasant Valley Manor park (67 homes); Pets allowed: Cats and dogs; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open/uncovered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (Covington Water); Power by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Entry level: One; Mobile home remains; Make: Lamplighter, Model: 28-50; Skirted with metal
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie down foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Open space; Paved; Secluded lot; Backyard storage (2 storage units); RV parking (park amenity); Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Den/office; Dining room; Extra finished room; Family room; Utility room; Skylights; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary; Patio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Morton-Berrydale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kent School District (urban): math 47% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #109 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grass Lake Elementary School (393 students, 34% FRL); Kentlake High School (1,440 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.55%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28454 168th Ave SE #29	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-9%)	2mo	$209,000	$164	79
28454 168th #1	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	18mo	$192,000	$132	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $20,444
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $61,906
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98042

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16830 SE Wax Rd Covington, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,458	$2.70	1d	15	0.41mi
17110 SE 276th St Covington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,220	$2.61	1d	1	0.70mi
18025 SE 272nd St Kent, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,675	$3.17	1d	9	1.02mi
17126 SE 269th Pl Covington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,587	$2.71	1d	15	1.08mi
26520 175th Ave SE Covington, WA	4.0	1.5	1590	$3,149	$1.98	12d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $175,000 Active
15. 2018-08-29
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
16. 2018-08-02
    status Pending
17. 2018-07-29
    status Pending Inspection
18. 2018-07-18
    status Active
19. 2018-07-12
    status Pending Inspection
20. 2018-06-21
    listed $74,950 Active
21. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2005-08-04
    listed $45,000
23. 2000-08-25
    soldstatus $59,000
24. 2000-05-19
    listed $59,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $8,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,983
• After-tax cash flow: $8,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kent School District
• NCES district ID: 5303960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,823
• Composite: 48.25/100
• National rank: #4714
• State rank: #109 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Morton-Berrydale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Morton-Berrydale, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,216
• Household income: $127,552
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Subsaharan African 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -635.61%
• Current HPI: 297.7991
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Listed $74,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-07 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-04 Listed $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-25 Sold (MLS) $59,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-19 Listed $59,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid