7 Jeremiah Sanford Rd · Topstone, CT 06896

$1,200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1993 2.04 ac lot $394/sqft · 33% above area Est $1113k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional custom designed and built 4 bedroom Colonial, bathed in natural sunlight, is nestled perfectly on 2 lush level manicured acres at the end of a small quiet cul-de-sac in a coveted area of town, a perfect tranquil oasis. The open floor plan provides timeless functionality and effortless living with dramatic high ceilings and extensive walls of glass. The special landscaped entrance porch opens into the welcoming 2-story foyer which leads into the gracious living room flowing into the banquet sized dining room. The spacious chef's kitchen with center island enjoys new stainless-steel appliances, granite counters, and an adjacent dining area which steps out onto a large deck, patio

Key facts

• Large deck
• 2 story foyer
• Primary suite

Tags

• LANDSCAPED ENTRANCE PORCH
• 2 STORY FOYER
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• PRIMARY SUITE
• RECREATION MEDIA ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage under the house; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private well; Septic system; Fuel tank in basement; Passive solar; Thermopane windows
• Home design: Single family home; Sand exterior color
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Shed; Porch; Deck; Gutters; Garden area; Outdoor lighting; Patio; Dry, level, cleared lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Professionally landscaped, open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Wall oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat (oil-fired); Central air conditioning; Oil hot water and domestic hot water
• Interior features: Auto garage door opener; Cable available; Open floor plan; Security system; One fireplace; Has attic with floored storage and pull-down stairs; Basement is full and partially finished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Laundry in walk-in pantry/closet off kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($94k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 09 (rural): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #7 of 192 in CT (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Redding Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #78 of 553 statewide, top 17%, 479 students, 9% FRL); John Read Middle School (math 69% / reading 76%, grade A, #6 of 175 statewide, top 3%, 350 students, 9% FRL); Joel Barlow High School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #18 of 194 statewide, top 10%, 768 students, 12% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 82% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Regional School District 09 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $850k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,164,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.02%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,112,915
• List price: $1,200,000
• Delta: 7.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Brick School Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	3,284 (+8%)	10mo	$865,000	$263	57
201 Umpawaug Rd	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,942 (-3%)	19mo	$1,117,000	$380	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $305,294
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $909,608
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06896

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$1,162 /mo · $13,945/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $7,845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,070

Max offer price $1,200,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,524	-5% $8,185	+0% $7,845	+5% $7,505	+10% $7,166
Rent	-10% $6,265	-5% $7,055	+0% $7,845	+5% $8,635	+10% $9,425
Rate	-1.0pp $8,449	-0.5pp $8,150	base $7,845	+0.5pp $7,534	+1.0pp $7,218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
142 Seventy Acre Rd Redding, CT	4.0	4.5	3350	$20,000	$5.97	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $1,200,000 Under Contract 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,200,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    listed $1,200,000 Active 1352-char remark
14. 2003-09-30
    soldstatus $850,000
15. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus $850,000
16. 2003-04-24
    listed $875,000
17. 1991-05-15
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,945 · $1,162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,812 · $1,651/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,868/yr (+$489/mo · 42.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$13,945
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable income: $79,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,087
• After-tax cash flow: $75,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 09
• NCES district ID: 0903780
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $120,713
• Composite: 77.14/100
• National rank: #169
• State rank: #7 of 192 in CT

Livability — Topstone

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,719

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.94%
• Current HPI: 163.4307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+650.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $1,200,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-29 Sold (MLS) $850,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-04-24 Listed $875,000 Smart MLS
• 1991-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $13,945 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.