28 Townsend St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1900 3,000 sqft lot Est $79k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently occupied receiving rent of $800 per month. Tenant would love to stay. Published commission on sales price less concessions and credits to MLS members only. Must give 24-48 hour notice Tenant occupied. ShowingTime Only for appointments. Must be accompanied by the Showing Agent and must be registered as a showing on ShowingTime.

Key facts

• Updates completed
• Private driveway
• Lower maintenance

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• UPDATES COMPLETED
• LOWER MAINTENANCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 100

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.16%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,156
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
703 Smith St	0.39mi	3/—	1,064 (+4%)	4mo	$43,000	$40	73
511 William St	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	990 (-4%)	2mo	$205,000	$207	59
58 Thomas St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,074 (+4%)	18mo	$83,000	$77	57
18 Paderewski Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+5%)	17mo	$65,000	$60	57
95 Jones St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	956 (-7%)	5mo	$119,900	$125	54
43 Newton St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,067 (+4%)	21mo	$80,000	$75	42
29 Lord St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	879 (-14%)	1mo	$163,000	$185	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $73,728
• Equity at exit: $57,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.68×
• Total profit: $182,373
• Equity at exit: $113,981

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $720	-5% $694	+0% $668	+5% $642	+10% $616
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $608	+0% $668	+5% $727	+10% $786
Rate	-1.0pp $706	-0.5pp $687	base $668	+0.5pp $648	+1.0pp $629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	0.69mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.69mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.30mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	1.34mi
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	1.45mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $75,000 Active
16. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus $67,500
17. 2021-12-06
    historical
18. 2021-11-30
    status Active
19. 2021-11-23
    historical
20. 2021-09-23
    price $68,900
21. 2021-09-06
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed Sale or Rented 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Currently occupied receiving rent of $800 per month. Tenant would love to stay. Published commission on sales price less concessions and credits to MLS members only. Must give 24-48 hour notice Tenant occupied. ShowingTime Only for appointments. Must be accompanied by the Showing Agent and must be registered as a showing on ShowingTime.

23. 2019-05-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Currently occupied receiving rent of $800 per month. Tenant would love to stay. Published commission on sales price less concessions and credits to MLS members only. Must give 24-48 hour notice Tenant occupied. ShowingTime Only for appointments. Must be accompanied by the Showing Agent and must be registered as a showing on ShowingTime.

24. 2019-05-02
    listed $34,900 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Currently occupied receiving rent of $800 per month. Tenant would love to stay. Published commission on sales price less concessions and credits to MLS members only. Must give 24-48 hour notice Tenant occupied. ShowingTime Only for appointments. Must be accompanied by the Showing Agent and must be registered as a showing on ShowingTime.

25. 2019-04-13
    historical
26. 2018-11-13
    listed $43,000 Active
27. 2018-11-12
    historical
28. 2018-08-12
    listed $43,000 Active
29. 2016-11-10
    historical
30. 2016-10-11
    price $25,000
31. 2016-08-12
    listed $34,900 Active
32. 1995-03-07
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $7,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $6,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+201.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-30 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-23 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-09-23 Price Changed $68,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-06 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-05-02 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-04-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-13 Listed $43,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-11-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-08-12 Listed $43,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-11-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-10-11 Price Changed $25,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-12 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 1995-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $56 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.