Catherine Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$289,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,516 sqft · SingleFamily · 394 Days on market

Excellent condition $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Home Is Part Of Our Covenant Series! Comfort and utilities are the priorities in this relaxed floor plan. Entering in from the garage after a long day, you'll be greeted by the warmth of the large family room that will instantly make you feel relaxed. You can also get a snack being that the kitchen is conveniently right across along with the dining room. Upstairs, the master suite beckons you to relax in the large shower, the oversize tub, and the spacious bedroom. 3 more bedrooms sit at the top of the house, plus another downstairs that can conveniently be used as an office space. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 394 days

🏗️ New construction. The $289,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,271.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-367/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in Allenhurst — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,692/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $477 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,271
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -5.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
702 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	5/3.0	2,415 (-4%)	4mo	$322,425	$134	66
1192 Buckhead Loop SE	0.45mi	5/3.0	2,415 (-4%)	11mo	$325,000	$135	63
236 Antler Ave	0.66mi	5/3.0	2,516 (0%)	9mo	$317,825	$126	62
836 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (-5%)	3mo	$316,800	$132	58
147 Antler Avenue Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (-5%)	2mo	$324,900	$136	57
874 Buckhead Loop SE	0.47mi	5/3.0	2,256 (-10%)	5mo	$320,675	$142	56
1226 Buckhead Loop SE	0.41mi	5/3.0	2,256 (-10%)	12mo	$307,325	$136	54
1158 Buckhead Loop SE	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (-5%)	12mo	$311,575	$130	53
200 Antler Ave SE	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,256 (-10%)	7mo	$308,875	$137	48
1052 Buckhead Loop SE	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,256 (-10%)	11mo	$323,840	$144	46
1034 Buckhead Loop SE	0.60mi	5/3.0	2,256 (-10%)	11mo	$307,625	$136	46
1105 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-10%)	9mo	$312,495	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-8,623
• Equity at exit: $91,617

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $33,104
• Equity at exit: $112,058

Cash invested: $86,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $308,600 ($136/sqft)
• Median days on market: 166 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,611
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,609/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $302,846

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $76	+0% $-31	+5% $-137	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-137	+0% $-31	+5% $76	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $48	base $-31	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,818
• Closing costs: $9,218
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2722 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.0	2256	$2,600	$1.15	139d	1	0.34mi
9635 Tibet Hwy SE Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	139d	1	1.26mi
28 Murray Crossing Blvd NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.5	2670	$2,350	$0.88	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $289,900 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $289,900 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $289,900 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 388 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 387 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 386 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 370 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 369 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 368 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 367 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 366 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 365 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 364 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 363 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 362 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 361 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 360 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 359 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 358 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 357 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 356 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 355 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 354 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 353 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 352 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 351 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 350 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 349 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 348 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 347 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 346 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 345 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 344 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 343 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 340 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 339 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 338 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 336 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 334 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 333 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,212
• − Property taxes: −$4,609
• − Insurance: −$1,536
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,939
• Taxable loss: −$5,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and trim — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $289,900 Zillow