877 Travis Ave · New York, NY 10314

$439,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2004 2,266 sqft lot Est $655k · 33% under ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your search for your new home ends right now. Fit right in to your updated 3 BR / 3 Bath home. Enjoy friends and family over for dinner in your oversized kitchen which features an open layout, new cabinets and granite countertops. Master bedroom features cathedral ceilings and the large 4 piece master bath is the perfect compliment to your home. Attractively priced, conveniently located, tremendous value and the opportunity to move right in, unpack your bags and start to enjoy your new home. Leave some time to see this one because you are sure to fall in love. ..

Key facts

• 2,266 sq ft lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 46 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 72 Rocco Laurie (math 47% / reading 65%, grade B-, #205 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,449 students, 66% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 490 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,680 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $655,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2054 Richmond Ave	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,430 (+2%)	4mo	$725,000	$507	74
12 Grissom Ave	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-1%)	4mo	$555,000	$399	72
34 Country Dr E Unit A45	0.47mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,395 (-0%)	2mo	$350,000	$251	71
197 Park Dr N	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,246 (-11%)	2mo	$772,000	$620	70
135 Freedom Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,548 (+11%)	4mo	$725,000	$468	67
6 Mulberry Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-12%)	2mo	$710,000	$576	62
107 Denker Pl	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+1%)	3mo	$670,000	$475	59
29 A Cooper Ter	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,591 (+14%)	1mo	$550,000	$346	55
20 Sweetgum Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,551 (+11%)	4mo	$816,000	$526	45
19 Lamped Loop Unit A3	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,202 (-14%)	1mo	$482,500	$401	45
52 Racal Ct Unit A-2	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	1mo	$486,500	$395	44
36 Northport Ln	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-7%)	2mo	$550,000	$423	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-78,837
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-68,488
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10314

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 490
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,668/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,849

Max offer price $407,980

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-51	+0% $-176	+5% $-300	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-319	+0% $-176	+5% $-32	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-64	base $-176	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Brunswick St Unit 2 Staten Island, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,300	$2.06	26d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2024-08-27
   status Pending
2. 2016-07-02
   status Pending
3. 2016-06-01
   historical
4. 2016-05-17
   listed $439,000 Active
5. 2016-02-17
   historical
6. 2016-02-17
   historical
7. 2014-11-29
   historical
8. 2007-10-30
   listed $474,999
9. 2006-10-30
   listed $469,000
10. 2005-06-09
    listed $473,000
11. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $905,000
12. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $495,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,668 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,044 · $587/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,668
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,482
• − Management: −$3,482
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$9,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Richmond County · 404,174 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 93,915
• Household income: $104,613
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2168.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 482,784 people
• By 2030: 481,831 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 473,159 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 457,242 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 408,029 · -15.5%
• By 2100: 341,459 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 35.1% · R 64.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+16.8 2012: D+0.8 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -553.73%
• Current HPI: 378.3872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.93%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-51.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-27 Pending — SIBORMLS
• 2016-07-02 Pending — SIBORMLS
• 2016-06-01 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2016-05-17 Listed $439,000 SIBORMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2014-11-29 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2007-10-30 Listed $474,999 SIBORMLS
• 2006-10-30 Listed $469,000 SIBORMLS
• 2005-06-09 Listed $473,000 SIBORMLS
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $495,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $905,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,668 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.