400 S Kiesel St · Bay City, MI 48706

$124,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,629 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1919 6,098 sqft lot $77/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 unit - multifamily, both units currently rented. Two bed / 1 bath unit, one bed / 1 bath unit. Owner pays electric and water, gas separated.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1919
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 60 x 100 (0.14 acre); Zoned residential; Subdivision: Fitzhugh & Kiesels Sub
• Financial info: Two units with current rents shown: one unit at $650 and one unit at $850

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multifamily residential income property; One and one-half story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Crawl space/basement
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained road; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Separate meters for heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: High speed internet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,455
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 53.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 W Jenny St	0.07mi	4/3.0	1,628 (-0%)	6mo	$85,000	$52	88
514 S Kiesel St	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,526 (-6%)	4mo	$150,000	$98	72
803 S Warner St	0.38mi	4/1.5	1,686 (+4%)	8mo	$158,000	$94	68
307 N Warner St	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,492 (-8%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	64
109 Englehardt Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+3%)	1mo	$301,000	$179	62
204 N Mountain St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,722 (+6%)	7mo	$159,900	$93	62
509 Gies St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (+7%)	6mo	$189,900	$109	58
604 W Midland St	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,826 (+12%)	9mo	$180,250	$99	56
316 S Woodbridge Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,418 (-13%)	2mo	$65,000	$46	53
709 N Wenona Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-12%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	49
3220 E Midland Rd	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,683 (+3%)	9mo	$400,000	$238	47
1208 S Chilson St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,495 (-8%)	9mo	$140,000	$94	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,542
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,953
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,647/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   2 unit - multifamily, both units currently rented. Two bed / 1 bath unit, one bed / 1 bath unit. Owner pays electric and water, gas separated.

8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $129,900 Active 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    2 unit - multifamily, both units currently rented. Two bed / 1 bath unit, one bed / 1 bath unit. Owner pays electric and water, gas separated.

18. 2026-05-13
    listed $129,900 Active 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    2 unit - multifamily, both units currently rented. Two bed / 1 bath unit, one bed / 1 bath unit. Owner pays electric and water, gas separated.

19. 2024-06-10
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Great income property on this 2 unit home in a convenient location in Bay City. East side unit is a 3 bedroom, with 3rd bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Currently renting for $850 per month. West side unit is a 1 bedroom currently renting for $550 per month. Great floor plans with nice sized living spaces. Schedule to see today.

21. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Great income property on this 2 unit home in a convenient location in Bay City. East side unit is a 3 bedroom, with 3rd bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Currently renting for $850 per month. West side unit is a 1 bedroom currently renting for $550 per month. Great floor plans with nice sized living spaces. Schedule to see today.

22. 2024-05-05
    status Pending
23. 2024-04-30
    listed $115,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Great income property on this 2 unit home in a convenient location in Bay City. East side unit is a 3 bedroom, with 3rd bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Currently renting for $850 per month. West side unit is a 1 bedroom currently renting for $550 per month. Great floor plans with nice sized living spaces. Schedule to see today.

24. 2024-04-30
    listed $115,000

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Great income property on this 2 unit home in a convenient location in Bay City. East side unit is a 3 bedroom, with 3rd bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Currently renting for $850 per month. West side unit is a 1 bedroom currently renting for $550 per month. Great floor plans with nice sized living spaces. Schedule to see today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,647
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-05 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,647 · +44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.