19410 Hinkley Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$499,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily · 176 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $443k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Elegant Prosperity floorplan - showcasing craftsman-inspired architecture, refined tile flooring, an extended covered lanai, and exquisite finishes. Ready January / February.

Key facts

• Exquisite finishes
• Prosperity floorplan
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PROSPERITY FLOORPLAN
• EXTENDED COVERED LANAI
• REFINED TILE FLOORING
• EXQUISITE FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $505,145

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Home design: Spec inventory, Plan name: Prosperity

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1670

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $440k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,809/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $439,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,550
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19528 Hinkley Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-6%)	14mo	$350,000	$224	66
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+0%)	9mo	$445,000	$265	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-73,155
• Equity at exit: $74,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-89,689
• Equity at exit: $43,230

Cash invested: $139,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,500/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,374

Max offer price $499,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $689	-5% $516	+0% $344	+5% $171	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $154	+0% $344	+5% $534	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $595	-0.5pp $471	base $344	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,998
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	3d	1	0.31mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	15d	1	0.32mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	24d	1	0.43mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	24d	1	0.47mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	11d	1	0.49mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	24d	1	0.49mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	3d	1	0.56mi
21110 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.62mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	24d	1	0.64mi
19228 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.66mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.67mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	24d	1	0.69mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	16d	1	0.70mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	24d	1	0.73mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	24d	1	0.73mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	24d	1	0.77mi
18262 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2098	$3,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.78mi
18546 Ives Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$8,250	$4.06	24d	1	0.82mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	21d	1	1.18mi
19701 Deming Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	24d	1	1.20mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.37mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,990 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,990 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,990 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,990 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,990 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $499,990 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $505,145 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $505,145 Active 159 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,007
• − Property taxes: −$7,500
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,616
• − Management: −$4,616
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $5,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B