748 Arncliffe Rd · Essex, MD 21221

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1954 1,600 sqft lot $172/sqft · at area comps Est $174k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 748 Arncliffe Rd—an incredible opportunity to own an affordable home for under $200K! This charming traditional home offers a functional and inviting layout, perfect for comfortable everyday living. The main level features a spacious living area and a well-appointed kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, including a dishwasher and electric range. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. The finished basement adds valuable extra living space—ideal for a family room, home office, or guest area. Recent updates include durable LVP flooring, and the home is equipped with gas heat and 100-amp electrical service. Enjoy relaxin

Key facts

• Built 1954
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade area: 448 total; Above-grade finished area: 896; Below-grade finished area: 120; Below-grade unfinished area: 328; Year built source: Assessor
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (public)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Asphalt roof; Double-pane energy-efficient windows
• Exterior features: Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Fully carpeted; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Attic; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Traditional floor plan; Plaster walls
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Basement laundry; Full, heated, improved basement with interior access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.8% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $175k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,076
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 0.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
738 Arncliffe Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	1,016 (0%)	8mo	$180,000	$177	92
724 Middlesex	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,016 (0%)	7mo	$170,000	$167	89
647 Dunwich Way	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+1%)	1mo	$147,000	$144	86
922 Middlesex Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,046 (+3%)	10mo	$190,000	$182	78
1110 N Marlyn Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,016 (0%)	11mo	$213,000	$210	68
417 Torner Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+13%)	3mo	$207,000	$181	67
559 Welbrook Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,124 (+11%)	4mo	$175,000	$156	60
303 Leeanne Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+1%)	5mo	$182,000	$178	59
606 Middlesex Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	1mo	$252,000	$219	59
624 Dunwich Way	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	10mo	$200,000	$174	58
1100 N Marlyn Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+13%)	2mo	$215,000	$188	52
329 Leeanne Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	2mo	$206,000	$179	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,377
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,533
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,333/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	21d	1	0.10mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	43d	1	0.12mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	4d	1	0.38mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	43d	1	0.39mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	2d	24	0.68mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	43d	1	0.72mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	23d	1	0.86mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	23d	1	0.99mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	43d	1	0.99mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	43d	1	1.00mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.06mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	21d	1	1.08mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	23d	1	1.11mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	10d	1	1.12mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	21d	1	1.14mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,510	$2.04	2d	9	1.25mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	43d	1	1.25mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	21d	1	1.29mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	10d	1	1.31mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	43d	1	1.31mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	1d	1	1.32mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,195	$1.50	10d	1	1.33mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	23d	1	1.38mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	500	$1,241	$2.48	2d	49	1.43mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	500	$1,272	$2.54	43d	42	1.43mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	4d	1	1.44mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	43d	1	1.46mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	4d	1	1.48mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	3d	1	1.48mi
511 Riverside Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,700	$2.03	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $187,890 Active 1121-char remark
15. 2026-04-25
    historical $187,890 1121-char remark
16. 2003-12-29
    soldstatus $64,000
17. 2003-12-04
    soldstatus $64,000
18. 2003-11-22
    historical
19. 2003-07-11
    listed $74,900
20. 1954-08-09
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,333
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $4,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1844.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $187,890 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Coming Soon $187,890 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-04 Sold (MLS) $64,000 MRIS
• 2003-11-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-07-11 Listed $74,900 MRIS
• 1954-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,333 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.