812 Harrison Ave · Moberly, MO 65270

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1964 0.44 ac lot Est $171k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedroom 1 bath home close to schools and everything you need in Moberly. This home sits on a huge lot in a quiet community. Being sold as is, no sellers disclosure.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Huge lot
• Quiet community

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.44 acres; Lot dimensions about 80 x 240; Zoned for single family residential; West-facing

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gratz Brown Elem. (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #849 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 436 students, 66% FRL); Moberly Middle (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Moberly Sr. High (math 2% / reading 52%, grade F, #417 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 691 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $119,669 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.98%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,925
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 Meadowbrook Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-0%)	1mo	$179,900	$136	74
408 Monroe Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+0%)	6mo	$115,000	$86	73
718 E Logan St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,323 (-0%)	6mo	$149,500	$113	69
305 Gratz Brown St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+5%)	6mo	$249,900	$179	64
401 E Rollins St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,302 (-2%)	9mo	$75,000	$58	60
1320 Quail Haven Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+4%)	9mo	$195,000	$142	59
208 Wisdom St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+7%)	8mo	$50,000	$35	56
717 E Logan St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (-13%)	4mo	$149,900	$129	53
428 Woodland Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,504 (+14%)	7mo	$130,000	$86	51
310 E Carpenter St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-13%)	5mo	$105,000	$91	48
1220 Shepherds Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	8mo	$225,000	$167	48
517 S Clark St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,229 (-7%)	6mo	$209,900	$171	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,033
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,210
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $181	+0% $145	+5% $110	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $98	+0% $145	+5% $192	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $177	base $145	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Cockrell Dr Moberly, MO	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,090	$0.95	44d	1	0.68mi
507 Eagle St Unit 507 Moberly, MO	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,350	$1.18	44d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 166-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moberly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $125,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.